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Modeling activity times by the Parkinson distribution with a lognormal core: Theory and validation

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  • Trietsch, Dan
  • Mazmanyan, Lilit
  • Gevorgyan, Lilit
  • Baker, Kenneth R.

Abstract

Based on theoretical arguments and empirical evidence we advocate the use of the lognormal distribution as a model for activity times. However, raw data on activity times are often subject to rounding and to the Parkinson effect. We address those factors in our statistical tests by using a generalized version of the Parkinson distribution with random censoring of earliness, ultimately validating our model with field data from several sources. We also confirm that project activities exhibit stochastic dependence that can be modeled by linear association.

Suggested Citation

  • Trietsch, Dan & Mazmanyan, Lilit & Gevorgyan, Lilit & Baker, Kenneth R., 2012. "Modeling activity times by the Parkinson distribution with a lognormal core: Theory and validation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 386-396.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:216:y:2012:i:2:p:386-396
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2011.07.054
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