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Revisiting the PERT mean and variance

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  • HerrerI´as-Velasco, José Manuel
  • HerrerI´as-Pleguezuelo, Rafael
  • van Dorp, Johan René

Abstract

Difficulties with the interpretation of the parameters of the beta distribution let Malcolm et al. (1959) to suggest in the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) their by now classical expressions for the mean and variance for activity completion for practical applications. In this note, we shall provide an alternative for the PERT variance expression addressing a concern raised by Hahn (2008) regarding the constant PERT variance assumption given the range for an activity's duration, while retaining the original PERT mean expression. Moreover, our approach ensures that an activity's elicited most likely value aligns with the beta distribution's mode. While this was the original intent of Malcolm et al. (1959), their method of selecting beta parameters via the PERT mean and variance is not consistent in this manner.

Suggested Citation

  • HerrerI´as-Velasco, José Manuel & HerrerI´as-Pleguezuelo, Rafael & van Dorp, Johan René, 2011. "Revisiting the PERT mean and variance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(2), pages 448-451, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:210:y:2011:i:2:p:448-451
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hahn, Eugene David, 2008. "Mixture densities for project management activity times: A robust approach to PERT," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 450-459, July.
    2. Kamburowski, J., 1997. "New validations of PERT times," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 323-328, June.
    3. M. W. Sasieni, 1986. "Note---A Note on Pert Times," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(12), pages 1652-1653, December.
    4. D. G. Malcolm & J. H. Roseboom & C. E. Clark & W. Fazar, 1959. "Application of a Technique for Research and Development Program Evaluation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 7(5), pages 646-669, October.
    5. T. C. T. Kotiah & N. D. Wallace, 1973. "Another Look at the PERT Assumptions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 44-49, September.
    6. Golenko-Ginzburg, D, 1989. "PERT assumptions revisited," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 393-396.
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