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Maximizing the net present value of a project under uncertainty

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  • Wiesemann, Wolfram
  • Kuhn, Daniel
  • Rustem, Berç

Abstract

We address the maximization of a project's expected net present value when the activity durations and cash flows are described by a discrete set of alternative scenarios with associated occurrence probabilities. In this setting, the choice of scenario-independent activity start times frequently leads to infeasible schedules or severe losses in revenues. We suggest to determine an optimal target processing time policy for the project activities instead. Such a policy prescribes an activity to be started as early as possible in the realized scenario, but never before its (scenario-independent) target processing time. We formulate the resulting model as a global optimization problem and present a branch-and-bound algorithm for its solution. Extensive numerical results illustrate the suitability of the proposed policy class and the runtime behavior of the algorithm.

Suggested Citation

  • Wiesemann, Wolfram & Kuhn, Daniel & Rustem, Berç, 2010. "Maximizing the net present value of a project under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(2), pages 356-367, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:202:y:2010:i:2:p:356-367
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