Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Forecasting demand for single-period products: A case study in the apparel industry

Contents:

Author Info

  • Mostard, Julien
  • Teunter, Ruud
  • de Koster, René

Abstract

The problem considered is that of forecasting demand for single-period products before the period starts. We study this problem for the case of a mail order apparel company that needs to order its products pre-season. The lack of historical demand data implies that other sources of data are needed. Advance order data can be obtained by allowing a selected group of customers to pre-order at a discount from a preview catalogue. Judgments can be obtained from purchase managers or other company experts. In this paper, we compare several existing and new forecasting methods for both sources of data. The methods are generic and can be used in any single-period problem in the apparel or fashion industries. Among the pre-order based methods, a novel 'top-flop' approach provides promising results. For a small group of products from the case company, expert judgment methods perform better than the methods based on advance demand information. The comparative results are obviously restricted to the specific case study, and additional testing is required to determine whether they are valid in general.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VCT-51F7PPJ-1/2/fc22ebde98d0bc63ca8f533439ce209a
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

Volume (Year): 211 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 139-147

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:211:y:2011:i:1:p:139-147

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor

Related research

Keywords: Demand forecasting Apparel Mail order;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Au, Kin-Fan & Choi, Tsan-Ming & Yu, Yong, 2008. "Fashion retail forecasting by evolutionary neural networks," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 615-630, August.
  2. George R. Murray, Jr. & Edward A. Silver, 1966. "A Bayesian Analysis of the Style Goods Inventory Problem," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(11), pages 785-797, July.
  3. Mostard, Julien & Teunter, Ruud, 2006. "The newsboy problem with resalable returns: A single period model and case study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 81-96, February.
  4. Marshall Fisher & Kumar Rajaram, 2000. "Accurate Retail Testing of Fashion Merchandise: Methodology and Application," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(3), pages 266-278, June.
  5. Mostard, Julien & de Koster, Rene & Teunter, Ruud, 2005. "The distribution-free newsboy problem with resalable returns," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 329-342, September.
  6. Chambers, M. L. & Eglese, R. W., 1988. "Forecasting demand for mail order catalogue lines during the season," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 131-138, March.
  7. Kogan, Konstantin & Herbon, Avi, 2008. "Production under periodic demand update prior to a single selling season: A decomposition approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 133-146, January.
  8. Sang Hoon Chang & David E. Fyffe, 1971. "Estimation of Forecast Errors for Seasonal-Style-Goods Sales," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages B89-B96, October.
  9. Christopher S. Tang & Kumar Rajaram & Ayd{\i}n Alptekino\u{g}lu & Jihong Ou, 2004. "The Benefits of Advance Booking Discount Programs: Model and Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(4), pages 465-478, April.
  10. Choi, Tsan-Ming, 2007. "Pre-season stocking and pricing decisions for fashion retailers with multiple information updating," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 146-170, March.
  11. Guillermo Gallego & Özalp Özer, 2001. "Integrating Replenishment Decisions with Advance Demand Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(10), pages 1344-1360, October.
  12. Hill, Roger M., 1997. "Applying Bayesian methodology with a uniform prior to the single period inventory model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 555-562, May.
  13. Robert C. Blattberg & Stephen J. Hoch, 1990. "Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(8), pages 887-899, August.
  14. Sanders, Nada R. & Manrodt, Karl B., 2003. "The efficacy of using judgmental versus quantitative forecasting methods in practice," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 511-522, December.
  15. Marshall Fisher & Kumar Rajaram & Ananth Raman, 2001. "Optimizing Inventory Replenishment of Retail Fashion Products," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 230-241, November.
  16. Tong Wang & Beril L. Toktay, 2008. "Inventory Management with Advance Demand Information and Flexible Delivery," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(4), pages 716-732, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Koppius, O.R. & Ozdemir, O. & van der Laan, E.A., 2011. "Beyond Waste Reduction: Creating Value with Information Systems in Closed-Loop Supply Chains," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2011-024-LIS, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
  2. Halkos, George & Kevork, Ilias, 2012. "Unbiased estimation of maximum expected profits in the Newsvendor Model: a case study analysis," MPRA Paper 40724, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:211:y:2011:i:1:p:139-147. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.