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Explaining cross-cohort differences in life-cycle earnings

Author

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  • Kong, Y.-C.
  • Ravikumar, B.
  • Vandenbroucke, G.

Abstract

College-educated workers entering the labor market in 1940 experienced a 4-fold increase in their labor earnings between the ages of 25 and 55; in contrast, the increase was 2.6-fold for those entering the market in 1980. For workers without a college education these figures are 3.6-fold and 1.5-fold, respectively. Why are earnings profiles flatter for recent cohorts? We build a parsimonious model of schooling and human capital accumulation on the job, and calibrate it to earnings statistics of workers from the 1940 cohort. The model accounts for 99% of the flattening of earnings profiles for workers with a college education between the 1940 and the 1980 cohorts (52% for workers without a college education). The flattening in our model results from a single exogenous factor: the increasing price of skills. The higher skill price induces (i) higher college enrollment for recent cohorts and thus a change in the educational composition of workers and (ii) higher human capital at the start of work life for college-educated workers in the recent cohorts, which implies lower earnings growth over the life cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Kong, Y.-C. & Ravikumar, B. & Vandenbroucke, G., 2018. "Explaining cross-cohort differences in life-cycle earnings," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 157-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:107:y:2018:i:c:p:157-184
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.06.005
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mestieri, Martí & Basco, Sergi & Smagghue, Gabriel & Liegey, Maxime, 2020. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Trade across Occupations: A Test of the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem," CEPR Discussion Papers 15186, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Keller, Elisa, 2019. "Labor supply and gender differences in occupational choice," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 221-241.
    4. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Maennig, Wolfgang & Mueller, Steffen Q., 2022. "The generation gap in direct democracy: Age vs. cohort effects," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Daniil Kashkarov, 2022. "RBTC and Human Capital: Accounting for Individual-Level Responses," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp721, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    6. B. Ravikumar & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2017. "Why Are Life-Cycle Earnings Profiles Getting Flatter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 99(3), pages 245-257.
    7. Benoit Dostie & Genevieve Dufour & Raquel Fonseca & Étienne Lalé, 2020. "Évolution séculaire du profil des salaires en fonction de l’âge : Québec, Canada et États-Unis," CIRANO Project Reports 2020rp-21, CIRANO.
    8. William G. Gale & Hilary Gelfond & Jason J. Fichtner & Benjamin H. Harris, 2021. "The Wealth of Generations, With Special Attention to the Millennials," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Distribution and Mobility of Income and Wealth, pages 145-174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Vandenbroucke, Guillaume, 2021. "The baby boomers and the productivity slowdown," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. Hendricks, Lutz, 2016. "Accounting for changing returns to experience," CFS Working Paper Series 558, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    11. George-Levi Gayle & Prasanthi Ramakrishnan & Mariana Odio-Zúñiga, 2021. "Work, Leisure, and Family: From the Silent Generation to Millennials," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(4), pages 385-424, October.
    12. Delalibera, Bruno Ricardo & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti, 2019. "Early childhood education and economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 82-104.
    13. Christian Belzil & Jörgen Hansen, 2020. "Reconciling Changes in Wage Inequality With Changes in College Selectivity Using a Behavioral Model," CIRANO Working Papers 2020s-36, CIRANO.
    14. Keller, Elisa, 2014. "The slowdown in American educational attainment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 252-270.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Life-cycle earnings; Flattening; Skill price; Education composition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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