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Stepping on a rake: The fiscal theory of monetary policy

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  • Cochrane, John H.

Abstract

The fiscal theory of the price level can describe monetary policy. Governments can set interest rate targets and thereby affect inflation, with no change in fiscal surpluses. The same basic mechanism describes interest rate targets, forward guidance, open market operations, and quantitative easing. It does not require any monetary, pricing, or other frictions. In the presence of long-term debt, higher interest rates lead to temporarily lower inflation, a challenging sign. I derive and replicate the results of the Sims (2011) “stepping on a rake” model, which first produced this negative sign, and produces realistic impulse-response functions. I show that Sims’ result is robust to many model features, but essentially requires long-term debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Cochrane, John H., 2018. "Stepping on a rake: The fiscal theory of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 354-375.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:101:y:2018:i:c:p:354-375
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.10.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "A Frictionless View of US Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 323-421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2016. "Unemployment and Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84(4), pages 1523-1569, July.
    3. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565-615.
    4. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
    5. Cochrane, John H., 2011. "Understanding policy in the great recession: Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 2-30, January.
    6. Cochrane, John H., 2017. "The new-Keynesian liquidity trap," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-63.
    7. Cochrane, John H, 2001. "Long-Term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 69-116, January.
    8. Cochrane, John H., 2014. "Monetary policy with interest on reserves," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 74-108.
    9. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. John H. Cochrane, 2017. "Michelson-Morley, Fisher, and Occam: The Radical Implications of Stable Quiet Inflation at the Zero Bound," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 113-226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Sims, Christopher A., 2011. "Stepping on a rake: The role of fiscal policy in the inflation of the 1970s," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 48-56, January.
    12. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lamia Bazzaoui & Jun Nagayasu, 2021. "Is Inflation Fiscally Determined?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-26, October.
    3. Roger Alejandro Banegas Rivero & Marco Alberto Nunez Ramirez & Sacnicte Valdez Del Rio, 2021. "Interaction of Economic Policy. Lessons on Social Welfare and Risk Premium," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 17(1), pages 7-29.
    4. Max Ole Liemen & Olaf Posch, 2022. "FTPL and the Maturity Structure of Government Debt in the New Keynesian Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 9840, CESifo.
    5. Hollmayr, Josef & Kühl, Michael, 2019. "Monetary–fiscal interaction and quantitative easing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 200-207.
    6. Harrison, Richard, 2021. "Flexible inflation targeting with active fiscal policy," Bank of England working papers 928, Bank of England.
    7. Nicolas Caramp & Dejanir Silva, 2023. "Fiscal Policy and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 716-746, December.
    8. van Wijnbergen, Sweder & Olijslagers, Stan & de Vette, Nander, 2020. "Debt sustainability when r - g," CEPR Discussion Papers 15478, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2020. "A Portfolio-Balance Model of Inflation and Yield Curve Determination," Staff Working Papers 20-6, Bank of Canada.
    10. John H. Cochrane, 2017. "Michelson-Morley, Fisher, and Occam: The Radical Implications of Stable Quiet Inflation at the Zero Bound," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 113-226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Sweder van Wijnbergen & Stan Olijslagers & Nander de Vette, 2020. "Debt sustainability when r - g smaller than 0: no free lunch after all," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-079/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Shobande Olatunji Abdul & Shodipe Oladimeji Tomiwa, 2019. "New Keynesian Liquidity Trap and Conventional Fiscal Stance: An Estimated DSGE Model," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 33(1), pages 152-169, January.

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    Keywords

    Monetary; Fiscal; Inflation;
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