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The implied arbitrage mechanism in financial markets

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  • Chen, Shiyi
  • Chng, Michael T.
  • Liu, Qingfu

Abstract

The no-arbitrage condition is a cornerstone concept in financial market research. However, the arbitrage mechanism that is inherent in the trading process for related securities, is not readily observable. We develop a generalized smooth-transition vector error-correction model, or GST-VECM, to estimate the arbitrage mechanism from financial market data. The GST-VECM can (i) back out the implied no-arbitrage band, (ii) estimate arbitrage intensity for upper and lower bound violations, and (iii) accommodate convergence risk for statistical arbitrage. Using the introduction of CSI300 ETF trading in China as a natural experiment, we estimate the GST-VECM to reveal some insight into how a microstructural policy, by altering the index arbitrage mechanism, affects the pricing link between spot and futures markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Shiyi & Chng, Michael T. & Liu, Qingfu, 2021. "The implied arbitrage mechanism in financial markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 468-483.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:222:y:2021:i:1:p:468-483
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.011
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    No-arbitrage band; Limits to arbitrage; Carry-cost adjusted basis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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