IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v202y2007i3p410-420.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Combination of process-oriented and pattern-oriented models of land-use change in a mountain area of Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Castella, Jean-Christophe
  • Verburg, Peter H.

Abstract

The tools and methods developed by different scientific communities to simulate the dynamics of land use have emphasised either processes or patterns of changes. Agent-based models (ABM) belong to the former category while many spatially explicit simulation models belong to the latter. These two different modelling approaches were jointly implemented at a study site in Vietnam to assess their respective strengths and weaknesses with respect to their capacity to support the formulation of land-use policy and to influence decision-making by multiple groups of stakeholders. SAMBA is a people-centred approach combining an ABM, a role-playing game and a geographic information system. Participatory simulations help elicit the rules of the ABM and calibrate the model, while the model supports the participatory exploration of land-use change scenarios over longer time periods. CLUE-s is a spatial simulation model which explores changes in land-use patterns within user-specified rules of permissible change and rates of change. Driving factors that influence changes from one land-use type to another are defined by combining spatially explicit data on land use and supposed driving factors in a logistical regression analysis. Alternatively, the decision rules that were revealed during the participatory simulations – with the role plays and the multi-agent modelling of the SAMBA approach – were incorporated in the CLUE-s model to provide more realistic estimates for the varying influence of land-use drivers. We checked the respective validity of the two models by applying them at the same site and comparing their outputs. As a result, no single approach was obviously superior according to the validation statistics. The three approaches turned out to be complementary in simulating land-use patterns, while providing different types of information. Integration of the two models into a rule-based version of CLUE-s helped reconciling data-driven statistical models and process-driven agent-based models in LUCC research. This new model reinforced the overall framework by facilitating the partnership between researchers from different scientific communities and between researchers and multiple groups of stakeholders. It may also better respond to the expectations of land users at different levels of the decision-making hierarchy.

Suggested Citation

  • Castella, Jean-Christophe & Verburg, Peter H., 2007. "Combination of process-oriented and pattern-oriented models of land-use change in a mountain area of Vietnam," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(3), pages 410-420.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:202:y:2007:i:3:p:410-420
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.11.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380006005436
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.11.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick d'Aquino, Christophe Le Page, Francois Bousquet, Alassane Bah, 2002. "A novel mediating participatory modelling: the self-design process to accompany collective decision making," International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(1), pages 59-74.
    2. Castella, Jean-Christophe & Boissau, Stanislas & Trung, Tran Ngoc & Quang, Dang Dinh, 2005. "Agrarian transition and lowland-upland interactions in mountain areas in northern Vietnam: application of a multi-agent simulation model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 312-332, December.
    3. Jean-Christophe Castella & Dang Dinh Quang & Pierre Thevenot, 2004. "Towards new modes of governance of the research–development continuum to facilitate the dissemination of agricultural innovations in a mountainous province of northern Vietnam," International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(1/2), pages 77-94.
    4. Janice Jiggins, Niels Roling, 2000. "Adaptive management: potential and limitations for ecological governance," International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 28-42.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Diego Ferraro & Daniela Blanco & Sebasti'an Pessah & Rodrigo Castro, 2021. "Land use change in agricultural systems: an integrated ecological-social simulation model of farmer decisions and cropping system performance based on a cellular automata approach," Papers 2109.01031, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    2. Fondevilla, Cristian & Àngels Colomer, M. & Fillat, Federico & Tappeiner, Ulrike, 2016. "Using a new PDP modelling approach for land-use and land-cover change predictions: A case study in the Stubai Valley (Central Alps)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 322(C), pages 101-114.
    3. Yi Lu & Xiangrong Wang & Yujing Xie & Kun Li & Yiyang Xu, 2016. "Integrating Future Land Use Scenarios to Evaluate the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Landscape Ecological Security," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-20, November.
    4. Smajgl, Alex & House, Alan P.N. & Butler, James R.A., 2011. "Implications of ecological data constraints for integrated policy and livelihoods modelling: An example from East Kalimantan, Indonesia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 888-896.
    5. Hone-Jay Chu & Chen-Fa Wu & Yu-Pin Lin, 2013. "Incorporating Spatial Autocorrelation with Neural Networks in Empirical Land-Use Change Models," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 40(3), pages 384-404, June.
    6. Zhang, Jianjun & Chen, Yang & Rao, Yongheng & Fu, Meichen & Prishchepov, Alexander V., 2017. "Alternative spatial allocation of suitable land for biofuel production in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 631-643.
    7. Xu, Xia & Gao, Qiong & Liu, Ying-Hui & Wang, Jing-Ai & Zhang, Yong, 2009. "Coupling a land use model and an ecosystem model for a crop-pasture zone," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(19), pages 2503-2511.
    8. Dou, Yue & Liu, Jianguo Jack, 2017. "Modeling telecoupled systems: design for simulating telecoupled soybean trade," Conference papers 332874, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. de Freitas, Marcos Wellausen Dias & Muñoz, Pablo & dos Santos, João Roberto & Alves, Diógenes Salas, 2018. "Land use and cover change modelling and scenarios in the Upper Uruguay Basin (Brazil)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 384(C), pages 128-144.
    10. Holger Cammerer & Annegret Thieken & Peter Verburg, 2013. "Spatio-temporal dynamics in the flood exposure due to land use changes in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(3), pages 1243-1270, September.
    11. Rutherford, Gillian N. & Bebi, Peter & Edwards, Peter J. & Zimmermann, Niklaus E., 2008. "Assessing land-use statistics to model land cover change in a mountainous landscape in the European Alps," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 212(3), pages 460-471.
    12. Wu, Wenbin & Shibasaki, Ryosuke & Yang, Peng & Tan, Guoxin & Matsumura, Kan-ichiro & Sugimoto, Kenji, 2007. "Global-scale modelling of future changes in sown areas of major crops," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 378-390.
    13. Menglin Ou & Jian Gong, 2021. "Farmland Transfers in China: From Theoretic Framework to Practice," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-14, December.
    14. Melvin Lippe & Thomas Hilger & Sureeporn Sudchalee & Naruthep Wechpibal & Attachai Jintrawet & Georg Cadisch, 2017. "Simulating Stakeholder-Based Land-Use Change Scenarios and Their Implication on Above-Ground Carbon and Environmental Management in Northern Thailand," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, December.
    15. Noelia Guaita García & Julia Martínez Fernández & Carl Fitz, 2020. "Environmental Scenario Analysis on Natural and Social-Ecological Systems: A Review of Methods, Approaches and Applications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-17, September.
    16. Lippe, Melvin & Rummel, Lisa & Günter, Sven, 2022. "Simulating land use and land cover change under contrasting levels of policy enforcement and its spatially-explicit impact on tropical forest landscapes in Ecuador," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    17. Deng Ding & David Bennett & Silvia Secchi, 2015. "Investigating Impacts of Alternative Crop Market Scenarios on Land Use Change with an Agent-Based Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-28, November.
    18. Yang, Xin & Zheng, Xin-Qi & Lv, Li-Na, 2012. "A spatiotemporal model of land use change based on ant colony optimization, Markov chain and cellular automata," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 233(C), pages 11-19.
    19. Xindong He & Xianmin Mai & Guoqiang Shen, 2019. "Delineation of Urban Growth Boundaries with SD and CLUE-s Models under Multi-Scenarios in Chengdu Metropolitan Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-13, October.
    20. Shoyama, Kikuko & Yamagata, Yoshiki, 2014. "Predicting land-use change for biodiversity conservation and climate-change mitigation and its effect on ecosystem services in a watershed in Japan," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 25-34.
    21. Farid El Wahidi & Julien Radoux & Quentin Ponette & Pierre Defourny, 2015. "Entity-Based Landscape Modelling to Assess the Impacts of Different Incentives Mechanisms on Argan Forest Dynamics," Land, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-27, November.
    22. Shivangi S. Somvanshi & Oshin Bhalla & Phool Kunwar & Madhulika Singh & Prafull Singh, 2020. "Monitoring spatial LULC changes and its growth prediction based on statistical models and earth observation datasets of Gautam Budh Nagar, Uttar Pradesh, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 1073-1091, February.
    23. Aquilué, Núria & De Cáceres, Miquel & Fortin, Marie-Josée & Fall, Andrew & Brotons, Lluís, 2017. "A spatial allocation procedure to model land-use/land-cover changes: Accounting for occurrence and spread processes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 344(C), pages 73-86.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Colvin, John & Blackmore, Chris & Chimbuya, Sam & Collins, Kevin & Dent, Mark & Goss, John & Ison, Ray & Roggero, Pier Paolo & Seddaiu, Giovanna, 2014. "In search of systemic innovation for sustainable development: A design praxis emerging from a decade of social learning inquiry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 760-771.
    2. Tanzi Smith, 2011. "Using critical systems thinking to foster an integrated approach to sustainability: a proposal for development practitioners," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Robert Pontius & Wideke Boersma & Jean-Christophe Castella & Keith Clarke & Ton Nijs & Charles Dietzel & Zengqiang Duan & Eric Fotsing & Noah Goldstein & Kasper Kok & Eric Koomen & Christopher Lippitt, 2008. "Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 11-37, March.
    4. Utomo, Dhanan Sarwo & Onggo, Bhakti Stephan & Eldridge, Stephen, 2018. "Applications of agent-based modelling and simulation in the agri-food supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(3), pages 794-805.
    5. Kenny, Daniel C. & Bakhanova, Elena & Hämäläinen, Raimo P. & Voinov, Alexey, 2022. "Participatory modelling and systems intelligence: A systems-based and transdisciplinary partnership," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Dolinska, Aleksandra, 2017. "Bringing farmers into the game. Strengthening farmers' role in the innovation process through a simulation game, a case from Tunisia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 129-139.
    7. Thomas Horlitz, 2007. "The Role of Model Interfaces for Participation in Water Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(7), pages 1091-1102, July.
    8. Ha, Tuan M. & Bosch, Ockie J.H. & Nguyen, Nam C. & Trinh, Chung T., 2017. "System dynamics modelling for defining livelihood strategies for women smallholder farmers in lowland and upland regions of northern Vietnam: A comparative analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 12-20.
    9. Kong, Rada & Castella, Jean-Christophe, 2021. "Farmers' resource endowment and risk management affect agricultural practices and innovation capacity in the Northwestern uplands of Cambodia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    10. Prost, Lorène & Reau, Raymond & Paravano, Laurette & Cerf, Marianne & Jeuffroy, Marie-Hélène, 2018. "Designing agricultural systems from invention to implementation: the contribution of agronomy. Lessons from a case study," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 122-132.
    11. Wolfram Dressler & Juan Pulhin, 2010. "The shifting ground of swidden agriculture on Palawan Island, the Philippines," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 27(4), pages 445-459, December.
    12. An, Li, 2012. "Modeling human decisions in coupled human and natural systems: Review of agent-based models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 25-36.
    13. Martin, G., 2015. "A conceptual framework to support adaptation of farming systems – Development and application with Forage Rummy," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 52-61.
    14. Lobianco, Antonello & Esposti, Roberto, 2010. "The Regional Multi-Agent Simulator (RegMAS): an open-source spatially explicit model to assess the impact of agricultural policies," MPRA Paper 25817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Grillot, Myriam & Vayssières, Jonathan & Masse, Dominique, 2018. "Agent-based modelling as a time machine to assess nutrient cycling reorganization during past agrarian transitions in West Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 133-151.
    16. Trædal, Leif Tore & Vedeld, Pål, 2018. "Cultivating forests: The role of forest land in household livelihood adaptive strategies in the Bac Kan Province of northern Vietnam," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 249-258.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:202:y:2007:i:3:p:410-420. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.