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Integrating Future Land Use Scenarios to Evaluate the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Landscape Ecological Security

Author

Listed:
  • Yi Lu

    (Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China)

  • Xiangrong Wang

    (Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China)

  • Yujing Xie

    (Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China)

  • Kun Li

    (Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China)

  • Yiyang Xu

    (Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China)

Abstract

Urban ecological security is the basic principle of national ecological security. However, analyses of the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological security remain limited, especially those that consider different scenarios of urban development. In this study, an integrated method is proposed that combines the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE-S) model with the Pressure–State–Response (P-S-R) framework to assess landscape ecological security (LES) in Huangshan City, China under two scenarios. Our results suggest the following conclusions: (1) the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological security are closely related to the urbanization process; (2) although the average values of landscape ecological security are similar under different scenarios, the areas of relatively high security levels vary considerably; and (3) spatial heterogeneity in ecological security exists between different districts and counties, and the city center and its vicinity may face relatively serious declines in ecological security in the future. Overall, the proposed method not only illustrates the spatio-temporal dynamics of landscape ecological security under different scenarios but also reveals the anthropogenic effects on ecosystems by differentiating between causes, effects, and human responses at the landscape scale. This information is of great significance to decision-makers for future urban planning and management.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi Lu & Xiangrong Wang & Yujing Xie & Kun Li & Yiyang Xu, 2016. "Integrating Future Land Use Scenarios to Evaluate the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Landscape Ecological Security," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-20, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:12:p:1242-:d:84054
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Youjung Kim & Galen Newman & Burak Güneralp, 2020. "A Review of Driving Factors, Scenarios, and Topics in Urban Land Change Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-22, July.
    4. Wenying Peng & Yue Sun & Can Liu & Dandan Liu, 2022. "Study on Urban Land Ecological Security Pattern and Obstacle Factors in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Jinming Yan & Yue Shen & Fangzhou Xia, 2017. "Differentiated Optimization of Sustainable Land Use in Metropolitan Areas: A Demarcation of Functional Units for Land Consolidation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-19, August.
    6. Yu Zhang & Pengcheng Wang & Tianwei Wang & Chongfa Cai & Zhaoxia Li & Mingjun Teng, 2018. "Scenarios Simulation of Spatio-Temporal Land Use Changes for Exploring Sustainable Management Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, March.
    7. Mingxin Wen & Ting Zhang & Long Li & Longqian Chen & Sai Hu & Jia Wang & Weiqiang Liu & Yu Zhang & Lina Yuan, 2021. "Assessment of Land Ecological Security and Analysis of Influencing Factors in Chaohu Lake Basin, China from 1998–2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-28, January.

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