IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v22y2020i2d10.1007_s10668-018-0234-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monitoring spatial LULC changes and its growth prediction based on statistical models and earth observation datasets of Gautam Budh Nagar, Uttar Pradesh, India

Author

Listed:
  • Shivangi S. Somvanshi

    (Amity University)

  • Oshin Bhalla

    (Amity University)

  • Phool Kunwar

    (Remote Sensing Application Centre- Uttar Pradesh)

  • Madhulika Singh

    (Amity University)

  • Prafull Singh

    (Amity University)

Abstract

It is well known and witnessed the fact that in recent years the growth of urbanization and increasing urban population in the cities, particularly in developing countries, are the primary concern for urban planners and other environmental professionals. The present study deals with multi-temporal satellite data along with statistical models to map and monitor the LULC change patterns and prediction of urban expansion in the upcoming years for one of the important cities of Ganga alluvial Plain. With the help of our study, we also tried to portray the impact of urban sprawl on the natural environment. The long-term LULC and urban spatial change modelling was carried out using Landsat satellite data from 2001 to 2016. The assessment of the outcome showed that increase in urban built-up areas favoured a substantial decline in the agricultural land and rural built-up areas, from 2001 to 2016. Shannon’s entropy index was also used to measure the spatial growth patterns over the period of time in the study area based on the land-use change statistics. Prediction of the future land-use growth of the study area for 2019, 2022 and 2031 was carried out using artificial neural network method through Quantum GIS software. Results of the simulation model revealed that 14.7% of urban built-up areas will increase by 2019, 15.7% by 2022 and 18.68% by 2031. The observation received from the present study based on the long-term classification of satellite data, statistical methods and field survey indicates that the predicted LULC map of the area will be precious information for policy and decision-makers for sustainable urban development and natural resource management in the area for food and water security.

Suggested Citation

  • Shivangi S. Somvanshi & Oshin Bhalla & Phool Kunwar & Madhulika Singh & Prafull Singh, 2020. "Monitoring spatial LULC changes and its growth prediction based on statistical models and earth observation datasets of Gautam Budh Nagar, Uttar Pradesh, India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 1073-1091, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:22:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10668-018-0234-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-018-0234-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-018-0234-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-018-0234-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehmet Cetin & Hakan Sevik, 2016. "Assessing Potential Areas of Ecotourism through a Case Study in Ilgaz Mountain National Park," Chapters, in: Leszek Butowski (ed.), Tourism - From Empirical Research Towards Practical Application, IntechOpen.
    2. Yang, Xin & Zheng, Xin-Qi & Lv, Li-Na, 2012. "A spatiotemporal model of land use change based on ant colony optimization, Markov chain and cellular automata," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 233(C), pages 11-19.
    3. Castella, Jean-Christophe & Verburg, Peter H., 2007. "Combination of process-oriented and pattern-oriented models of land-use change in a mountain area of Vietnam," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(3), pages 410-420.
    4. Tian, Guangjin & Ouyang, Yun & Quan, Quan & Wu, Jianguo, 2011. "Simulating spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization with multi-agent systems—A case study of the Phoenix metropolitan region, USA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(5), pages 1129-1138.
    5. Heng Sun & Wayne Forsythe & Nigel Waters, 2007. "Modeling Urban Land Use Change and Urban Sprawl: Calgary, Alberta, Canada," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 353-376, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sunil Kumar & Swagata Ghosh & Sultan Singh, 2022. "Polycentric urban growth and identification of urban hot spots in Faridabad, the million-plus metropolitan city of Haryana, India: a zonal assessment using spatial metrics and GIS," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 8246-8286, June.
    2. Pramod Kumar & Vikas Garg & Saurabh Mittal & Y. V. N. Krishna Murthy, 2022. "GIS-based hazard and vulnerability assessment of a torrential watershed," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 921-951, January.
    3. Agnieszka Szmelter-Jarosz & Jagienka Rześny-Cieplińska & Andrzej Jezierski, 2020. "Assessing Resources Management for Sharing Economy in Urban Logistics," Resources, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-30, September.
    4. Vishal Chettry & Meenal Surawar, 2021. "Assessment of urban sprawl characteristics in Indian cities using remote sensing: case studies of Patna, Ranchi, and Srinagar," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 11913-11935, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michel Opelele Omeno & Ying Yu & Wenyi Fan & Tolerant Lubalega & Chen Chen & Claude Kachaka Sudi Kaiko, 2021. "Analysis of the Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change on Land-Surface Temperature in the Villages within the Luki Biosphere Reserve," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-23, October.
    2. Liu, Dongya & Zheng, Xinqi & Wang, Hongbin, 2020. "Land-use Simulation and Decision-Support system (LandSDS): Seamlessly integrating system dynamics, agent-based model, and cellular automata," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 417(C).
    3. Hashem Dadashpoor & Fardis Salarian, 2020. "Urban sprawl on natural lands: analyzing and predicting the trend of land use changes and sprawl in Mazandaran city region, Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 593-614, February.
    4. Yang, Xin & Zheng, Xin-Qi & Lv, Li-Na, 2012. "A spatiotemporal model of land use change based on ant colony optimization, Markov chain and cellular automata," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 233(C), pages 11-19.
    5. Yang, Xin & Zheng, Xin-Qi & Chen, Rui, 2014. "A land use change model: Integrating landscape pattern indexes and Markov-CA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 283(C), pages 1-7.
    6. Auwalu Faisal Koko & Wu Yue & Ghali Abdullahi Abubakar & Roknisadeh Hamed & Akram Ahmed Noman Alabsi, 2020. "Monitoring and Predicting Spatio-Temporal Land Use/Land Cover Changes in Zaria City, Nigeria, through an Integrated Cellular Automata and Markov Chain Model (CA-Markov)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-21, December.
    7. Wang, Han & Tian, Fuan & Wu, Jianxian & Nie, Xin, 2023. "Is China forest landscape restoration (FLR) worth it? A cost-benefit analysis and non-equilibrium ecological view," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    8. Zambon, Ilaria & Serra, Pere & Grigoriadis, Efstathios & Carlucci, Margherita & Salvati, Luca, 2017. "Emerging urban centrality: An entropy-based indicator of polycentric development and economic growth," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 365-371.
    9. Jie Bao & Chengcheng Xu & Pan Liu & Wei Wang, 2017. "Exploring Bikesharing Travel Patterns and Trip Purposes Using Smart Card Data and Online Point of Interests," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1231-1253, December.
    10. Meisam Jafari & Hamid Majedi & Seyed Masoud Monavari & Ali Asghar Alesheikh & Mirmasoud Kheirkhah Zarkesh, 2016. "Dynamic Simulation of Urban Expansion Based on Cellular Automata and Logistic Regression Model: Case Study of the Hyrcanian Region of Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-18, August.
    11. Han, Yu & Jia, Haifeng, 2017. "Simulating the spatial dynamics of urban growth with an integrated modeling approach: A case study of Foshan, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 107-116.
    12. Liu, Dongya & Zheng, Xinqi & Zhang, Chunxiao & Wang, Hongbin, 2017. "A new temporal–spatial dynamics method of simulating land-use change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 350(C), pages 1-10.
    13. Yusuyunjiang Mamitimin & Zibibula Simayi & Ayinuer Mamat & Bumairiyemu Maimaiti & Yunfei Ma, 2023. "FLUS Based Modeling of the Urban LULC in Arid and Semi-Arid Region of Northwest China: A Case Study of Urumqi City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-14, March.
    14. Patuelli, Roberto & Reggiani, Aura & Nijkamp, Peter & Bade, Franz-Josef, 2010. "The evolution of the commuting network in Germany: Spatial and connectivity patterns," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 2(3), pages 5-37.
    15. Zhang, Yan & Chang, Xia & Liu, Yanfang & Lu, Yanchi & Wang, Yiheng & Liu, Yaolin, 2021. "Urban expansion simulation under constraint of multiple ecosystem services (MESs) based on cellular automata (CA)-Markov model: Scenario analysis and policy implications," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    16. Fondevilla, Cristian & Àngels Colomer, M. & Fillat, Federico & Tappeiner, Ulrike, 2016. "Using a new PDP modelling approach for land-use and land-cover change predictions: A case study in the Stubai Valley (Central Alps)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 322(C), pages 101-114.
    17. Zhang, Jianjun & Chen, Yang & Rao, Yongheng & Fu, Meichen & Prishchepov, Alexander V., 2017. "Alternative spatial allocation of suitable land for biofuel production in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 631-643.
    18. Esther Shupel Ibrahim & Bello Ahmed & Oludunsin Tunrayo Arodudu & Jibril Babayo Abubakar & Bitrus Akila Dang & Mahmoud Ibrahim Mahmoud & Halilu Ahmad Shaba & Sanusi Bello Shamaki, 2022. "Desertification in the Sahel Region: A Product of Climate Change or Human Activities? A Case of Desert Encroachment Monitoring in North-Eastern Nigeria Using Remote Sensing Techniques," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-23, April.
    19. Riao, Dao & Guga, Suri & Bao, Yongbin & Liu, Xingping & Tong, Zhijun & Zhang, Jiquan, 2023. "Non-overlap of suitable areas of agro-climatic resources and main planting areas is the main reason for potato drought disaster in Inner Mongolia, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    20. Kang Liu & Chaozheng Zhang & Han Zhang & Hao Xu & Wen Xia, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Variation and Dynamic Simulation of Ecosystem Carbon Storage in the Loess Plateau Based on PLUS and InVEST Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-18, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:22:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10668-018-0234-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.