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Land use and cover change modelling and scenarios in the Upper Uruguay Basin (Brazil)

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  • de Freitas, Marcos Wellausen Dias
  • Muñoz, Pablo
  • dos Santos, João Roberto
  • Alves, Diógenes Salas

Abstract

The objective of this work was to implement a spatial dynamics model to simulate land use and cover change (LUCC) in the period between 1986, 2002 and 2008 and to generate future scenarios until 2030 in an area characterized by multiple, competitive and complex LUCC processes. The model structure follows the majority of the existing LUCC models, being composed by six consecutive procedures: (a) calculation of transition demands, (b) definition and mapping of LUCC processes, (c) generation of transition probabilities maps, (d) spatial allocation of transitions, (e) calibration and validation of the simulation results, (f) generation of scenarios. The present model which is called LanDSCAM differs from other LUCC models reported in the literature in that: (a) LanDSCAM provision for the aggregation of multiple land use and cover transitions, simplifying LUCC modelling of study areas with multiple and complex land use and cover transitions; (b) a mandatory application of user-defined regions for transition demands calculation, transitions spatial allocation and model calibration, (c) introduction of specific procedures for spatial allocation of transitions divided on a deterministic cellular automata and a stochastic patch generation functions. The use of a theoretical approach for systems dynamics modelling allowed an overview on the different models of development by society. The LUCC model developed in this study provided contributions to the generation of simulations and scenarios in situations related to multiple, competitive and complex LUCC processes.

Suggested Citation

  • de Freitas, Marcos Wellausen Dias & Muñoz, Pablo & dos Santos, João Roberto & Alves, Diógenes Salas, 2018. "Land use and cover change modelling and scenarios in the Upper Uruguay Basin (Brazil)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 384(C), pages 128-144.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:384:y:2018:i:c:p:128-144
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.06.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Castella, Jean-Christophe & Verburg, Peter H., 2007. "Combination of process-oriented and pattern-oriented models of land-use change in a mountain area of Vietnam," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(3), pages 410-420.
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    3. Herrera, Amilcar O., 1981. "The generation of technologies in rural areas," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 21-35, January.
    4. Helen Briassoulis, 2000. "Analysis of Land Use Change: Theoretical and Modeling Approaches," Wholbk, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University, number 17, November-.
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    Cited by:

    1. Druga, Michal & Minár, Jozef, 2023. "Cost distance and potential accessibility as alternative spatial approximators of human influence in LUCC modelling," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Xia Xu & Mengxi Guan & Honglei Jiang & Lingfei Wang, 2019. "Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change of the Upper and Middle Streams of the Luan River, Northern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-15, September.
    3. Jiangfu Liao & Lina Tang & Guofan Shao, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation to Predict Ecological Risk Posed by Urban Sprawl with Spontaneous Growth: A Case Study of Quanzhou," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-22, November.
    4. Sadooghi, Seyed Ehsan & Taleai, Mohammad & Abolhasani, Somaie, 2022. "Simulation of urban growth scenarios using integration of multi-criteria analysis and game theory," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

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