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Agricultural commodity markets in the wake of the black sea grain initiative

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  • Goyal, Raghav
  • Steinbach, Sandro

Abstract

This paper studies the futures market response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Event study estimates indicate that futures prices for agricultural commodities were 16% above the counterfactual within the first nine weeks after the invasion. The dynamic treatment estimates also show that futures prices began to recede after the EU Solidarity Lanes were established in May 2022. The Black Sea Grain Initiative did little to change the perception of agricultural commodity traders regarding the futures market uncertainty caused by the Russia–Ukraine war. Our ex-ante estimates challenge the prevailing narrative that the Black Sea Grain Initiative was critical in lowering prices for agricultural commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Goyal, Raghav & Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "Agricultural commodity markets in the wake of the black sea grain initiative," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:231:y:2023:i:c:s0165176523003221
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111297
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian invasion of Ukraine; Black Sea Grain Initiative; Agricultural commodities; Futures price; Historical volatility; Event studies; Counterfactual evaluation; Commodity heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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