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The ex post accuracy of subjective beliefs: A new measure and decomposition

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  • Crossley, Thomas F.
  • Gong, Yifan
  • Stinebrickner, Ralph
  • Stinebrickner, Todd

Abstract

We propose a novel but intuitive measure of the average ex post accuracy of a group of economic agents’ beliefs, and show how a decomposition of that measure captures different sources of inaccuracy: failure of rational expectations, subjective uncertainty, and aggregate shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Crossley, Thomas F. & Gong, Yifan & Stinebrickner, Ralph & Stinebrickner, Todd, 2022. "The ex post accuracy of subjective beliefs: A new measure and decomposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:210:y:2022:i:c:s0165176521004316
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110160
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 411-471.
    2. Arcidiacono, Peter & Hotz, V. Joseph & Kang, Songman, 2012. "Modeling college major choices using elicited measures of expectations and counterfactuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(1), pages 3-16.
    3. Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2012. "On the Use of Expectations Data in Estimating Structural Dynamic Choice Models," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(3), pages 521-554.
    4. Yifan Gong & Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2019. "Uncertainty about future income: Initial beliefs and resolution during college," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(2), pages 607-641, May.
    5. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Pill, Patch, Or Shot? Subjective Expectations And Birth Control Choice," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(3), pages 999-1042, August.
    6. Marcel Das & Bas Donkers, 1999. "How Certain Are Dutch Households About Future Income? An Empirical Analysis," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 45(3), pages 325-338, September.
    7. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, September.
    8. Yifan Gong & Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2020. "Perceived and actual option values of college enrollment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 940-959, November.
    9. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992. "Earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 307-337, November.
    10. Xavier D'Haultfoeuille & Christophe Gaillac & Arnaud Maurel, 2021. "Rationalizing rational expectations: Characterizations and tests," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), pages 817-842, July.
    11. Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2012. "Learning about Academic Ability and the College Dropout Decision," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(4), pages 707-748.
    12. Basit Zafar, 2011. "How Do College Students Form Expectations?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(2), pages 301-348.
    13. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1996. "Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-26.
    14. Thomas Crossley & Yifan Gong & Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2021. "Examining income expectations in the college and early post-college periods: new distributional tests of rational expectations," IFS Working Papers W21/01, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gizem Koşar & Cormac O'Dea, 2022. "Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models," NBER Working Papers 30094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Pamela Giustinelli, 2022. "Expectations in Education: Framework, Elicitation, and Evidence," Working Papers 2022-026, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Probabilistic expectations data; Uncertainty; Income expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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