IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolec/v170y2020ics0921800919315344.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of climate change on demand of ski tourism - a simulation study based on stated preferences

Author

Listed:
  • Steiger, Robert
  • Posch, Eva
  • Tappeiner, Gottfried
  • Walde, Janette

Abstract

Climate change will affect tourism as one of the sectors most dependent on natural resources. Due to the strong dependency of many peripheral areas on tourism, climate change has the potential to destabilize regional economies. The objective of this paper is to assess the impacts of climate change on ski tourism demand. A tourist survey (n = 1957) with a choice experiment conducted in 53 ski areas in Austria provides the data for our analyses. Results show that snow is the most important factor for destination choice. Nevertheless, preferences of respondents are heterogeneous. Measures that enhance price-performance ratio, i.e. lowering lift ticket prices and avoiding crowding, turn out to be the most suitable compensation for suboptimal snow conditions. As long as substitute ski areas with better snow conditions exist, destinations with marginal snow conditions are likely to face severe demand losses (up to 60%). Nevertheless, dynamic pricing has the potential to compensate medium snow reliability. If all destinations are affected by deteriorating snow conditions, total demand reduces by 64% if snow reliability is low. If these conditions and effects are limited to the beginning and the end of the ski season, demand is projected to decline by 18%.

Suggested Citation

  • Steiger, Robert & Posch, Eva & Tappeiner, Gottfried & Walde, Janette, 2020. "The impact of climate change on demand of ski tourism - a simulation study based on stated preferences," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:170:y:2020:i:c:s0921800919315344
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106589
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800919315344
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106589?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geoff Riddington & Colin Sinclair & Nicola Milne, 2000. "Modelling choice and switching behaviour between Scottish ski centres," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 1011-1018.
    2. Dawson, J. & Scott, D., 2013. "Managing for climate change in the alpine ski sector," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 244-254.
    3. Konu, Henna & Laukkanen, Tommi & Komppula, Raija, 2011. "Using ski destination choice criteria to segment Finnish ski resort customers," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1096-1105.
    4. Castillo, Victoria & Figal Garone, Lucas & Maffioli, Alessandro & Salazar, Lina, 2017. "The causal effects of regional industrial policies on employment: A synthetic control approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 25-41.
    5. Vithala R. Rao, 2014. "Applied Conjoint Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-540-87753-0, November.
    6. Geoffrey Klein & Yann Vitasse & Christian Rixen & Christoph Marty & Martine Rebetez, 2016. "Shorter snow cover duration since 1970 in the Swiss Alps due to earlier snowmelt more than to later snow onset," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 637-649, December.
    7. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387.
    8. Falk, Martin & Hagsten, Eva, 2016. "Importance of early snowfall for Swedish ski resorts: Evidence based on monthly data," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 61-73.
    9. Rutty, Michelle & Scott, Daniel & Johnson, Peter & Pons, Marc & Steiger, Robert & Vilella, Marc, 2017. "Using ski industry response to climatic variability to assess climate change risk: An analogue study in Eastern Canada," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 196-204.
    10. Falk, Martin & Vanat, Laurent, 2016. "Gains from investments in snowmaking facilities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 339-349.
    11. Smith, Jordan W. & Seekamp, Erin & McCreary, Allie & Davenport, Mae & Kanazawa, Mark & Holmberg, Kerry & Wilson, Bruce & Nieber, John, 2016. "Shifting demand for winter outdoor recreation along the North Shore of Lake Superior under variable rates of climate change: A finite-mixture modeling approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-13.
    12. Salvati, Luca & Carlucci, Margherita, 2011. "The economic and environmental performances of rural districts in Italy: Are competitiveness and sustainability compatible targets?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2446-2453.
    13. Martin Falk, 2015. "The Demand for Winter Sports: Empirical Evidence for the Largest French Ski-Lift Operator," Tourism Economics, , vol. 21(3), pages 561-580, June.
    14. Landauer, Mia & Pröbstl, Ulrike & Haider, Wolfgang, 2012. "Managing cross-country skiing destinations under the conditions of climate change – Scenarios for destinations in Austria and Finland," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 741-751.
    15. Beaudin, Laura & Huang, Ju-Chin, 2014. "Weather conditions and outdoor recreation: A study of New England ski areas," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 56-68.
    16. Malasevska, Iveta & Haugom, Erik, 2018. "Optimal prices for alpine ski passes," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 291-302.
    17. Daniel Scott & Jackie Dawson & Brenda Jones, 2008. "Climate change vulnerability of the US Northeast winter recreation– tourism sector," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 577-596, June.
    18. Peter J. Lenk & Wayne S. DeSarbo & Paul E. Green & Martin R. Young, 1996. "Hierarchical Bayes Conjoint Analysis: Recovery of Partworth Heterogeneity from Reduced Experimental Designs," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 173-191.
    19. Schirpke, Uta & Meisch, Claude & Marsoner, Thomas & Tappeiner, Ulrike, 2018. "Revealing spatial and temporal patterns of outdoor recreation in the European Alps and their surroundings," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 31(PC), pages 336-350.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Parthum, Bryan & Christensen, Peter, 2022. "A market for snow: Modeling winter recreation patterns under current and future climate," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Diallo, Mbaye Fall & Diop-Sall, Fatou & Leroux, Erick & Vachon, Marc-Antoine, 2022. "How do tourism sustainability and nature affinity affect social engagement propensity? The central roles of nature conservation attitude and personal tourist experience," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    3. Hasanzade, Vüsal & Elshiewy, Ossama & Toporowski, Waldemar, 2022. "Is it just the distance? Consumer preference for geographical and social proximity of food production," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    4. Daniel Scott & Robert Steiger & Michelle Rutty & Marc Pons & Peter Johnson, 2020. "Climate Change and Ski Tourism Sustainability: An Integrated Model of the Adaptive Dynamics between Ski Area Operations and Skier Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Yang Yang & Xiaodong Sun & Lingli Hu & Yuzhu Ma & He Bu, 2023. "How Ski Tourism Involvement Promotes Tourists’ Low-Carbon Behavior?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-16, June.
    6. Robert Steiger & Eva Posch & Gottfried Tappeiner & Janette Walde, 2020. "Effects of climate change on tourism demand considering individual seasonal preferences," Working Papers 2020-08, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    7. Li, Yuxin & Yao, Zili & Guo, Zhanfeng, 2023. "Willingness to pay and preferences for rural tourism attributes among urban residents: A discrete choice experiment in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 460-471.
    8. Jinkui Wu & Tian Jin & Yancong Wu & Yongjian Ding & Yaqiong Mu & Di Zeng, 2022. "The Variation of UTCI with the Background of Climate Change and Its Implications for Tourism in a Complicated Climate Region in Western China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-22, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert Steiger & Eva Posch & Gottfried Tappeiner & Janette Walde, 2020. "Effects of climate change on tourism demand considering individual seasonal preferences," Working Papers 2020-08, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    2. Parthum, Bryan & Christensen, Peter, 2022. "A market for snow: Modeling winter recreation patterns under current and future climate," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Martin Falk & Robert Steiger, 2020. "Size facilitates profitable ski lift operations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(7), pages 1197-1211, November.
    4. Hongchao Zhang & Jordan W. Smith, 2018. "Weather and Air Quality Drive the Winter Use of Utah’s Big and Little Cottonwood Canyons," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-12, October.
    5. Carsten Herbes & Johannes Dahlin & Peter Kurz, 2020. "Consumer Willingness To Pay for Proenvironmental Attributes of Biogas Digestate-Based Potting Soil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-19, August.
    6. Mark Kanazawa & Mark T. Kanazawa, 2016. "Local consequences of climate change: State park visitations on the North Shore of Minnesota," Working Papers 2016-03, Carleton College, Department of Economics.
    7. Jun Liu & Han Cheng & Xiaoqian Sun & Li Huang & Qiuchan Fan & Haolong Liu, 2017. "Effects of Climate Change on Outdoor Skating in the Bei Hai Park of Beijing and Related Adaptive Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-15, June.
    8. Hein, Maren & Goeken, Nils & Kurz, Peter & Steiner, Winfried J., 2022. "Using Hierarchical Bayes draws for improving shares of choice predictions in conjoint simulations: A study based on conjoint choice data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(2), pages 630-651.
    9. Martin Falk & Sigbjorn Landazuri Tveteraas, 2020. "Modelling the wider effects of ski lift investments," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 259-274, July.
    10. Falk, Martin & Vanat, Laurent, 2016. "Gains from investments in snowmaking facilities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 339-349.
    11. Hein, Maren & Kurz, Peter & Steiner, Winfried J., 2019. "On the effect of HB covariance matrix prior settings: A simulation study," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 51-72.
    12. Maren Hein & Peter Kurz & Winfried J. Steiner, 2020. "Analyzing the capabilities of the HB logit model for choice-based conjoint analysis: a simulation study," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 90(1), pages 1-36, February.
    13. Trawöger, Lisa, 2014. "Convinced, ambivalent or annoyed: Tyrolean ski tourism stakeholders and their perceptions of climate change," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 338-351.
    14. Paul Diederen & Hans Van Meijl & Arjan Wolters & Katarzyna Bijak, 2003. "Innovation adoption in agriculture : innovators, early adopters and laggards," Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 67, pages 29-50.
    15. Lynd Bacon & Peter Lenk, 2012. "Augmenting discrete-choice data to identify common preference scales for inter-subject analyses," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 453-474, December.
    16. Rutty, Michelle & Scott, Daniel & Johnson, Peter & Pons, Marc & Steiger, Robert & Vilella, Marc, 2017. "Using ski industry response to climatic variability to assess climate change risk: An analogue study in Eastern Canada," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 196-204.
    17. Max J. Pachali & Peter Kurz & Thomas Otter, 2020. "How to generalize from a hierarchical model?," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 343-380, December.
    18. Patricia Aranda-Cuéllar & José María López-Morales & María Jesús Such-Devesa, 2021. "Winter tourism dependence: A cyclical and cointegration analysis. Case study for the Alps," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(7), pages 1540-1560, November.
    19. Daniel Scott & Robert Steiger & Michelle Rutty & Marc Pons & Peter Johnson, 2020. "Climate Change and Ski Tourism Sustainability: An Integrated Model of the Adaptive Dynamics between Ski Area Operations and Skier Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-16, December.
    20. Huang, Youlin & Qian, Lixian & Tyfield, David & Soopramanien, Didier, 2021. "On the heterogeneity in consumer preferences for electric vehicles across generations and cities in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Winter tourism; Climate change; Regional impact; Choice experiment; Alpine region; Demand simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Z3 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:170:y:2020:i:c:s0921800919315344. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.