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Mitigation of the Lucas critique with stochastic control methods

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  • Amman, Hans M.
  • Kendrick, David A.

Abstract

Lucas (In: Brunner, K., Meltzer, A.H. (Eds.), The Phillips Curve and the Labor Markets, Supplementary Series to the Journal of Monetary Economics, 1976, pp. 19–46) pointed out, that when optimization is performed on a deterministic macro model, the resulting policy may not reflect the true optimal solution. Private agents may react to announced policies and consequently model parameters will start to drift. The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for deriving an optimal policy in the presence of rational expectations and parameter drift. This drift is captured by a stochastic optimization framework with time-varying parameters. The resulting optimal policy is capable of tracking changes in the parameters due to policy changes. A numerical example illustrates how the methodology provides a way to mitigate the effects of the Lucas critique.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 27 (2003)
Issue (Month): 11 ()
Pages: 2035-2057

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:27:y:2003:i:11:p:2035-2057

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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Keywords: Macroeconomics; Rational expectations; Stochastic optimization; Numerical experiments;

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References

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  1. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, 1997. "Linear Quadratic Optimization for Models with Rational Expectations," CARE Working Papers 9708, The University of Texas at Austin, Center for Applied Research in Economics.
  2. Tucci, Marco P., 1997. "Adaptive control in the presence of time-varying parameters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-47, November.
  3. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 49-73, January.
  4. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr.
  5. Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tinsley, P. A., 1980. "Linear prediction and estimation methods for regression models with stationary stochastic coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 103-142, February.
  6. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2001. "Monetary policy regimes and beliefs," Working Paper 9905, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  7. Martin Feldstein & James H. Stock, 1993. "The Use of Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP," NBER Working Papers 4304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Amman, Hans M. & Kendrick, David A., 1998. "Computing the steady state of linear quadratic optimization models with rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 185-191, February.
  9. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
  10. Amman, Hans M. & Neudecker, Heinz, 1997. "Numerical solutions of the algebraic matrix Riccati equation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 363-369.
  11. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  12. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  13. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  14. Wickens, Michael R, 1982. "The Efficient Estimation of Econometric Models with Rational Expectations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 55-67, January.
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Cited by:
  1. D.A. Kendrick & H.M. Amman & M.P. Tucci, 2008. "Learning About Learning in Dynamic Economic Models," Working Papers 08-20, Utrecht School of Economics.
  2. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2011. "Stabilization Theory and Policy: 50 Years after the Phillips Curve," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 67-88, January.
  3. Athanasiou, George & Kotsios, Stelios, 2008. "An algorithmic approach to exchange rate stabilization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1246-1260, November.
  4. H.M. Amman & D.A. Kendrick, 2012. "Conjectures on the policy function in the presence of optimal experimentation," Working Papers 12-09, Utrecht School of Economics.

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