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Modelling macroeconomic shocks in the CFA Franc Zone

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  • Fielding, David
  • Shields, Kalvinder

Abstract

In this paper we modify the method of Blanchard and Quah (1989) in order to estimate a structural VAR model appropriate for a small open economy. In this way we identify shocks to output and prices in the members of the two monetary unions that make up the African CFA Franc Zone. The costs of monetary union membership will depend on the extent to which price and output shocks are correlated across countries, and the degree of similarity in the long run effects of the shocks on the macro-economy. The policy conclusions depend on the relative importance of different macroeconomic variables to policymakers, and the speed with which a policymaker is able to respond to a shock.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 66 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (October)
Pages: 199-223

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Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:66:y:2001:i:1:p:199-223

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  1. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  4. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does The Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," Working Papers 97-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  7. Allechi, M'Bet & Niamkey, Madeleine A., 1994. "Evaluating the net gains from the CFA Franc Zone membership: A different perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(8), pages 1147-1160, August.
  8. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  9. Diep Nuven, 1994. "Linkages in Price Level and Inflation Rate Between Cfa Franc Zone Countries and France," IMF Working Papers 94/93, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Shantayanan Devarajan & Dani Rodrik, 1991. "Do the Benefits of Fixed Exchange Rates Outweigh Their Costs? The Franc Zone in Africa," NBER Working Papers 3727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Fielding, David, 1996. "Asymmetries in the Behaviour of Members of a Monetary Union: A Game-Theoretic Model with an Application to West Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 5(3), pages 343-65, October.
  12. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
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  14. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
  15. Michel Galy & Michael T. Hadjimichael, 1997. "The CFA Franc Zone and the EMU," IMF Working Papers 97/156, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1995. "Fiscal discipline and the choice of exchange rate regime," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 759-770, April.
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