IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v96y2012icp4-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Generation risk assessment in volatile conditions with wind, hydro, and natural gas units

Author

Listed:
  • Sahin, Cem
  • Shahidehpour, Mohammad
  • Erkmen, Ismet

Abstract

This paper studies a generating company (GENCO)’s midterm (a few months to a year) scheduling payoffs and risks in volatile operating conditions. The proposed algorithm considers the integration of intermittent wind units into a GENCO’s generation assets and coordinates the GENCO’s hourly wind generation schedule with that of natural gas (NG) units (with volatile gas prices) and hydro units (with water inflow forecast) for maximizing the GENCO’s payoff. The proposed midterm GENCO model applies market price forecasts to the risk-constrained stochastic price-based unit commitment (PBUC) for calculating the GENCO’s risk in energy and ancillary services markets. The proposed PBUC minimizes the cost of (a) NG contracts, storage, startup and shutdown, (b) startup and shutdown of cascaded hydro units, and (c) penalty for defaulting on the scheduled power delivery. Simulation results show that the diversification of generating assets including bilateral contracts (BCs) could enhance the GENCO’s midterm planning by increasing the expected payoff and decreasing the financial risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Sahin, Cem & Shahidehpour, Mohammad & Erkmen, Ismet, 2012. "Generation risk assessment in volatile conditions with wind, hydro, and natural gas units," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 4-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:96:y:2012:i:c:p:4-11
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.11.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261911007021
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.11.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tuohy, Aidan & Meibom, Peter & Denny, Eleanor & O'Malley, Mark, 2009. "Unit commitment for systems with significant wind penetration," MPRA Paper 34849, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fotouhi Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali & Canizes, Bruno & Vale, Zita & Morais, Hugo, 2013. "Stochastic short-term maintenance scheduling of GENCOs in an oligopolistic electricity market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 667-677.
    2. D’Amico, Guglielmo & Petroni, Filippo & Prattico, Flavio, 2015. "Economic performance indicators of wind energy based on wind speed stochastic modeling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 290-297.
    3. Hany Elgamal, Ahmed & Kocher-Oberlehner, Gudrun & Robu, Valentin & Andoni, Merlinda, 2019. "Optimization of a multiple-scale renewable energy-based virtual power plant in the UK," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    4. Suomalainen, Kiti & Pritchard, Geoffrey & Sharp, Basil & Yuan, Ziqi & Zakeri, Golbon, 2015. "Correlation analysis on wind and hydro resources with electricity demand and prices in New Zealand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 445-462.
    5. Wen, Le & Suomalainen, Kiti & Sharp, Basil & Yi, Ming & Sheng, Mingyue Selena, 2022. "Impact of wind-hydro dynamics on electricity price: A seasonal spatial econometric analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    6. Diagoupis, Theodoros D. & Andrianesis, Panagiotis E. & Dialynas, Evangelos N., 2016. "A planning approach for reducing the impact of natural gas network on electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 189-198.
    7. Esmaeili Aliabadi, Danial & Kaya, Murat & Sahin, Guvenc, 2017. "Competition, risk and learning in electricity markets: An agent-based simulation study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 1000-1011.
    8. Chertkov, Michael & Backhaus, Scott & Lebedev, Vladimir, 2015. "Cascading of fluctuations in interdependent energy infrastructures: Gas-grid coupling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 541-551.
    9. Quan, Hao & Srinivasan, Dipti & Khambadkone, Ashwin M. & Khosravi, Abbas, 2015. "A computational framework for uncertainty integration in stochastic unit commitment with intermittent renewable energy sources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 71-82.
    10. Mauro Lafratta & Matthew Leach & Rex B. Thorpe & Mark Willcocks & Eve Germain & Sabeha K. Ouki & Achame Shana & Jacquetta Lee, 2021. "Economic and Carbon Costs of Electricity Balancing Services: The Need for Secure Flexible Low-Carbon Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.
    11. Khan, Muhammad T. & Thopil, George Alex & Lalk, Jorg, 2016. "Review of proposals for practical power sector restructuring and reforms in a dynamic electricity supply industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 326-335.
    12. Wei Zhang & Ruoyao Liu & Xinyu Yang, 2019. "Study on Operating Strategy of Electric–Gas Combined System Considering the Improvement of Dispatchability," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-24, December.
    13. Han, Chanok & Vinel, Alexander, 2022. "Reducing forecasting error by optimally pooling wind energy generation sources through portfolio optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    14. Balkhair, Khaled S. & Rahman, Khalil Ur, 2017. "Sustainable and economical small-scale and low-head hydropower generation: A promising alternative potential solution for energy generation at local and regional scale," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 378-391.
    15. Devlin, Joseph & Li, Kang & Higgins, Paraic & Foley, Aoife, 2017. "Gas generation and wind power: A review of unlikely allies in the United Kingdom and Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 757-768.
    16. Fan, Zhi-Ping & Cai, Siqin & Guo, Dongliang & Xu, Bo, 2022. "Facing the uncertainty of renewable energy production: Production decisions of a power plant with different risk attitudes," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 1237-1247.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Després, Jacques & Hadjsaid, Nouredine & Criqui, Patrick & Noirot, Isabelle, 2015. "Modelling the impacts of variable renewable sources on the power sector: Reconsidering the typology of energy modelling tools," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 486-495.
    2. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F., 2013. "Assessing the value of wind generation in future carbon constrained electricity industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 400-412.
    3. Osório, G.J. & Lujano-Rojas, J.M. & Matias, J.C.O. & Catalão, J.P.S., 2015. "A probabilistic approach to solve the economic dispatch problem with intermittent renewable energy sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 949-959.
    4. Bingke Yan & Bo Wang & Lin Zhu & Hesen Liu & Yilu Liu & Xingpei Ji & Dichen Liu, 2015. "A Novel, Stable, and Economic Power Sharing Scheme for an Autonomous Microgrid in the Energy Internet," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-24, November.
    5. Katrin Trepper & Michael Bucksteeg & Christoph Weber, 2013. "An integrated approach to model redispatch and to assess potential benefits from market splitting in Germany," EWL Working Papers 1319, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Apr 2014.
    6. Gokturk Poyrazoglu & HyungSeon Oh, 2019. "Co-optimization of Transmission Maintenance Scheduling and Production Cost Minimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-18, July.
    7. Nyamdash, Batsaikhan & Denny, Eleanor, 2013. "The impact of electricity storage on wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 6-16.
    8. Lamadrid, Alberto J. & Mount, Tim, 2012. "Ancillary services in systems with high penetrations of renewable energy sources, the case of ramping," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1959-1971.
    9. Ying-Yi Hong & Gerard Francesco DG. Apolinario, 2021. "Uncertainty in Unit Commitment in Power Systems: A Review of Models, Methods, and Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-47, October.
    10. Xiaohua Zhang & Jun Xie & Zhengwei Zhu & Jianfeng Zheng & Hao Qiang & Hailong Rong, 2016. "Smart Grid Cost-Emission Unit Commitment via Co-Evolutionary Agents," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-13, October.
    11. Andrychowicz, Mateusz & Olek, Blazej & Przybylski, Jakub, 2017. "Review of the methods for evaluation of renewable energy sources penetration and ramping used in the Scenario Outlook and Adequacy Forecast 2015. Case study for Poland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 703-714.
    12. Abdul Rauf & Mahmoud Kassas & Muhammad Khalid, 2022. "Data-Driven Optimal Battery Storage Sizing for Grid-Connected Hybrid Distributed Generations Considering Solar and Wind Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-27, September.
    13. Felten, Björn & Weber, Christoph, 2018. "The value(s) of flexible heat pumps – Assessment of technical and economic conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1292-1319.
    14. Misconel, S. & Leisen, R. & Mikurda, J. & Zimmermann, F. & Fraunholz, C. & Fichtner, W. & Möst, D. & Weber, C., 2022. "Systematic comparison of high-resolution electricity system modeling approaches focusing on investment, dispatch and generation adequacy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    15. repec:dui:wpaper:1305 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. De Vos, K. & Stevens, N. & Devolder, O. & Papavasiliou, A. & Hebb, B. & Matthys-Donnadieu, J., 2019. "Dynamic dimensioning approach for operating reserves: Proof of concept in Belgium," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 272-285.
    17. Govind Joshi & Salman Mohagheghi, 2021. "Optimal Operation of Combined Energy and Water Systems for Community Resilience against Natural Disasters," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, September.
    18. Lin, Jin & Cheng, Lin & Chang, Yao & Zhang, Kai & Shu, Bin & Liu, Guangyi, 2014. "Reliability based power systems planning and operation with wind power integration: A review to models, algorithms and applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 921-934.
    19. Keane, A. & Tuohy, A. & Meibom, P. & Denny, E. & Flynn, D. & Mullane, A. & O'Malley, M., 2011. "Demand side resource operation on the Irish power system with high wind power penetration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2925-2934, May.
    20. Salci, Sener & Jenkins, Glenn, 2016. "An Economic and Stakeholder Analysis for the Design of IPP Contracts for Wind Farms," MPRA Paper 70578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Zhu, Xu & Yang, Jun & Pan, Xueli & Li, Gaojunjie & Rao, Yingqing, 2020. "Regional integrated energy system energy management in an industrial park considering energy stepped utilization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:96:y:2012:i:c:p:4-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.