IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v85y2008i4p271-296.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparison of neural network, conditional demand analysis, and engineering approaches for modeling end-use energy consumption in the residential sector

Author

Listed:
  • Aydinalp-Koksal, Merih
  • Ugursal, V. Ismet

Abstract

This paper investigates the use of conditional demand analysis (CDA) method to model the residential end-use energy consumption at the national level. There are several studies where CDA was used to model energy consumption at the regional level; however the CDA method had not been used to model residential energy consumption at the national level. The prediction performance and the ability to characterize the residential end-use energy consumption of the CDA model are compared with those of a neural network (NN) and an engineering based model developed earlier. The comparison of the predictions of the models indicates that CDA is capable of accurately predicting the energy consumption in the residential sector as well as the other two models. The effects of socio-economic factors are estimated using the NN and the CDA models, where possible. Due to the limited number of variables the CDA model can accommodate, its capability to evaluate these effects is found to be lower than the NN model.

Suggested Citation

  • Aydinalp-Koksal, Merih & Ugursal, V. Ismet, 2008. "Comparison of neural network, conditional demand analysis, and engineering approaches for modeling end-use energy consumption in the residential sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(4), pages 271-296, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:85:y:2008:i:4:p:271-296
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306-2619(06)00136-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hsiao, Cheng & Mountain, Dean C & Illman, Kathleen Ho, 1995. "A Bayesian Integration of End-Use Metering and Conditional-Demand Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 315-326, July.
    2. Herriges, Joseph A. & Caves, Douglas W. & Train, K. & Windle, R. J., 1987. "A Bayesian Approach to Combining Conditional Demand and Engineering Models of Electricity Usage," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10794, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Swamy, P A V B, 1970. "Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 311-323, March.
    4. Bauwens, Luc & Fiebig, Denzil G & Steel, Mark F J, 1994. "Estimating End-Use Demand: A Bayesian Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 221-231, April.
    5. Dennis J. Aigner & Cynts Sorooshian & Pamela Kerwin, 1984. "Conditional Demand Analysis for Estimating Residential End-Use Load Profiles," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 81-98.
    6. Michael Parti & Cynthia Parti, 1980. "The Total and Appliance-Specific Conditional Demand for Electricity in the Household Sector," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 11(1), pages 309-321, Spring.
    7. Caves, Douglas W, et al, 1987. "A Bayesian Approach to Combining Conditional Demand and Engineering Models of Electricity Usage," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 438-448, August.
    8. Aydinalp, Merih & Ismet Ugursal, V. & Fung, Alan S., 2004. "Modeling of the space and domestic hot-water heating energy-consumption in the residential sector using neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 159-178, October.
    9. Fiebig, Denzil G. & Bartels, Robert & Aigner, Dennis J., 1991. "A random coefficient approach to the estimation of residential end-use load profiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 297-327, December.
    10. Aydinalp, Merih & Ismet Ugursal, V. & Fung, Alan S., 2002. "Modeling of the appliance, lighting, and space-cooling energy consumptions in the residential sector using neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 87-110, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Swan, Lukas G. & Ugursal, V. Ismet, 2009. "Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: A review of modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 1819-1835, October.
    2. Gholami, M. & Barbaresi, A. & Torreggiani, D. & Tassinari, P., 2020. "Upscaling of spatial energy planning, phases, methods, and techniques: A systematic review through meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Papineau, Maya & Yassin, Kareman & Newsham, Guy & Brice, Sarah, 2021. "Conditional demand analysis as a tool to evaluate energy policy options on the path to grid decarbonization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Bartels, Robert & Fiebig, Denzil G., 1995. "Optimal design in end-use metering experiments," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 305-309.
    5. Li, Wenliang & Zhou, Yuyu & Cetin, Kristen & Eom, Jiyong & Wang, Yu & Chen, Gang & Zhang, Xuesong, 2017. "Modeling urban building energy use: A review of modeling approaches and procedures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2445-2457.
    6. Hannah Goozee, 2017. "Energy, Poverty and Development: A Primer for the Sustainable Development Goals," Working Papers id:11933, eSocialSciences.
    7. Hannah Goozee, 2017. "Energy, poverty and development: a primer for the Sustainable Development Goals," Working Papers 156, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    8. Larsen, Bodil Merethe & Nesbakken, Runa, 2004. "Household electricity end-use consumption: results from econometric and engineering models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 179-200, March.
    9. Kavousian, Amir & Rajagopal, Ram & Fischer, Martin, 2013. "Determinants of residential electricity consumption: Using smart meter data to examine the effect of climate, building characteristics, appliance stock, and occupants' behavior," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 184-194.
    10. Frondel, Manuel & Sommer, Stephan & Vance, Colin, 2019. "Heterogeneity in German Residential Electricity Consumption: A quantile regression approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 370-379.
    11. Hanne Marit Dalen and Bodil M. Larsen, 2015. "Residential End-use Electricity Demand: Development over Time," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    12. Aydinalp, Merih & Ismet Ugursal, V. & Fung, Alan S., 2002. "Modeling of the appliance, lighting, and space-cooling energy consumptions in the residential sector using neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 87-110, February.
    13. Shigeru Matsumoto, 2015. "Electric Appliance Ownership and Usage: Application of Conditional Demand Analysis to Japanese Household Data," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 3105452, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    14. Matsumoto, Shigeru, 2016. "How do household characteristics affect appliance usage? Application of conditional demand analysis to Japanese household data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 214-223.
    15. McLoughlin, Fintan & Duffy, Aidan & Conlon, Michael, 2015. "A clustering approach to domestic electricity load profile characterisation using smart metering data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 190-199.
    16. Marcin Zygmunt & Dariusz Gawin, 2021. "Application of Artificial Neural Networks in the Urban Building Energy Modelling of Polish Residential Building Stock," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-15, December.
    17. Farzan, Farbod & Jafari, Mohsen A. & Gong, Jie & Farzan, Farnaz & Stryker, Andrew, 2015. "A multi-scale adaptive model of residential energy demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 258-273.
    18. Zhao, Hai-xiang & Magoulès, Frédéric, 2012. "A review on the prediction of building energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 3586-3592.
    19. Al-Ghandoor, A. & Jaber, J.O. & Al-Hinti, I. & Mansour, I.M., 2009. "Residential past and future energy consumption: Potential savings and environmental impact," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(6-7), pages 1262-1274, August.
    20. Mattias Vesterberg and Chandra Kiran B. Krishnamurthy, 2016. "Residential End-use Electricity Demand: Implications for Real Time Pricing in Sweden," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:85:y:2008:i:4:p:271-296. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.