IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v238y2019icp384-400.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Downscaled energy demand projection at the local level using the Iterative Proportional Fitting procedure

Author

Listed:
  • Ahn, Young-Hwan
  • Woo, Jung-Hun
  • Wagner, Fabian
  • Yoo, Seung Jick

Abstract

In this paper we forecast energy demand at the local level using a new two-dimensional downscaling methodology that respects regional and subnational variation and, as well as consistency at the aggregate level. This methodology combines the one-dimensional statistical downscaling and the Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) procedure. Previous projection studies based on downscaling methods have focused on allocating one-dimensional quantity indicators such as GDP, population, and emissions, into geographically or administratively lower levels. In case of energy demand projections, however, downscaling involves not only regional allocation of energy demand quantities but also energy mixes of the demands in the regions. Our novel two-dimensional downscaling methodology allows us to downscale national energy projections in both demand quantities and their energy mix to regional levels by combining the statistical downscaling and the IPF procedure. We illustrate the methodology by deriving energy demand projections for provinces and metropolitan cities in Korea from national scenarios. In addition, we provide two more simple applications of the IPF to show utilization potentials of the IPF in energy demand forecasting and statistics.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahn, Young-Hwan & Woo, Jung-Hun & Wagner, Fabian & Yoo, Seung Jick, 2019. "Downscaled energy demand projection at the local level using the Iterative Proportional Fitting procedure," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 384-400.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:238:y:2019:i:c:p:384-400
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.051
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261919300534
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.051?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van Vuuren, D.P. & Cofala, J. & Eerens, H.E. & Oostenrijk, R. & Heyes, C. & Klimont, Z. & den Elzen, M.G.J. & Amann, M., 2006. "Exploring the ancillary benefits of the Kyoto Protocol for air pollution in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 444-460, March.
    2. Scott Kelly & Michael Pollitt, 2011. "The Local Dimension of Energy," Working Papers EPRG 1103, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    3. Lamia Kamal-Chaoui & Fabio Grazi & Jongwan Joo & Marissa Plouin, 2011. "The Implementation of the Korean Green Growth Strategy in Urban Areas," OECD Regional Development Working Papers 2011/2, OECD Publishing.
    4. Walz, A. & Braendle, J.M. & Lang, D.J. & Brand, F. & Briner, S. & Elkin, C. & Hirschi, C. & Huber, R. & Lischke, H. & Schmatz, D.R., 2014. "Experience from downscaling IPCC-SRES scenarios to specific national-level focus scenarios for ecosystem service management," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 21-32.
    5. Volker Krey, 2014. "Global energy-climate scenarios and models: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 363-383, July.
    6. Doll, Christopher N.H. & Muller, Jan-Peter & Morley, Jeremy G., 2006. "Mapping regional economic activity from night-time light satellite imagery," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 75-92, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Angreine Kewo & Pinrolinvic D. K. Manembu & Per Sieverts Nielsen, 2020. "Synthesising Residential Electricity Load Profiles at the City Level Using a Weighted Proportion (Wepro) Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-28, July.
    2. McGookin, Connor & Ó Gallachóir, Brian & Byrne, Edmond, 2021. "An innovative approach for estimating energy demand and supply to inform local energy transitions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Corral, Leonardo R. & Schling, Maja, 2017. "The impact of shoreline stabilization on economic growth in small island developing states," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 210-228.
    2. Boslett, Andrew & Hill, Elaine & Ma, Lala & Zhang, Lujia, 2021. "Rural light pollution from shale gas development and associated sleep and subjective well-being," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Nicolas Taconet & Aurélie Méjean & Céline Guivarch, 2020. "Influence of climate change impacts and mitigation costs on inequality between countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 15-34, May.
    4. Natalya Rybnikova & Boris Portnov, 2015. "Using light-at-night (LAN) satellite data for identifying clusters of economic activities in Europe," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 307-334, November.
    5. Mohammed Iddrisu Kambala, 2023. "Colonial Origins of Comparative Development in Ghana," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(2), pages 188-208, February.
    6. Nicolene Hamman & Andrew Phiri, 2022. "Using Nighttime Luminosity as a Proxy for Economic Growth in Africa: Is It a Bright Idea?," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 20(2 (Summer), pages 139-165.
    7. Prakash, Nishith & Rockmore, Marc & Uppal, Yogesh, 2019. "Do criminally accused politicians affect economic outcomes? Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    8. Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi & Christoph Bertram & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Valentina Bosetti & Jessica Callen & Jacques Després & Jonathan Doelman & Laurent Drou, 2019. "A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(5), pages 386-396, May.
    9. Denis Cogneau & Yannick Dupraz, 2014. "Questionable Inference on the Power of Pre-Colonial Institutions in Africa," PSE Working Papers halshs-01018548, HAL.
    10. De Luca, Giacomo & Hodler, Roland & Raschky, Paul A. & Valsecchi, Michele, 2018. "Ethnic favoritism: An axiom of politics?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 115-129.
    11. Milan Ščasný & Emanuele Massetti & Jan Melichar & Samuel Carrara, 2015. "Quantifying the Ancillary Benefits of the Representative Concentration Pathways on Air Quality in Europe," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 383-415, October.
    12. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    13. Shaikh Shamim Hasan & Xiangzheng Deng & Zhihui Li & Dongdong Chen, 2017. "Projections of Future Land Use in Bangladesh under the Background of Baseline, Ecological Protection and Economic Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, March.
    14. Andreas Andreou & Panagiotis Fragkos & Theofano Fotiou & Faidra Filippidou, 2022. "Assessing Lifestyle Transformations and Their Systemic Effects in Energy-System and Integrated Assessment Models: A Review of Current Methods and Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-24, July.
    15. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin & Sanders, Mark & Schippers, Vincent & Steinwachs, Thomas, 2018. "Shedding Light on the Spatial Diffusion of Disasters," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181556, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Kermeli, Katerina & Edelenbosch, Oreane Y. & Crijns-Graus, Wina & van Ruijven, Bas J. & Mima, Silvana & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Worrell, Ernst, 2019. "The scope for better industry representation in long-term energy models: Modeling the cement industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 964-985.
    17. Shao, Shuai & Zhang, Xuebin & Yang, Lili, 2023. "Natural resource dependence and urban shrinkage: The role of human capital accumulation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    18. Bollen, Johannes, 2015. "The value of air pollution co-benefits of climate policies: Analysis with a global sector-trade CGE model called WorldScan," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 178-191.
    19. Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía & Iván Higuera-Mendieta, 2017. "Political Alignment in the Time of Weak Parties: Electoral Advantages and Subnational Transfers in Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 15746, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    20. Brock, Gregory, 2015. "The informal economy of Rostov Oblast on the eve of the Ukrainian refugee crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 789-803.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:238:y:2019:i:c:p:384-400. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.