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Can UK passenger vehicles be designed to meet 2020 emissions targets? A novel methodology to forecast fuel consumption with uncertainty analysis

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  • Martin, Niall P.D.
  • Bishop, Justin D.K.
  • Choudhary, Ruchi
  • Boies, Adam M.

Abstract

Vehicle manufacturers are required to reduce their European sales-weighted emissions to 95g CO2/km by 2020, with the aim of reducing on-road fleet fuel consumption. Nevertheless, current fuel consumption models are not suited for the European market and are unable to account for uncertainties when used to forecast passenger vehicle energy-use. Therefore, a new methodology is detailed herein to quantify new car fleet fuel consumption based on vehicle design metrics. The New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) is shown to underestimate on-road fuel consumption in Spark (SI) and Compression Ignition (CI) vehicles by an average of 16% and 13%, respectively. A Bayesian fuel consumption model attributes these discrepancies to differences in rolling, frictional and aerodynamic resistances. Using projected inputs for engine size, vehicle mass, and compression ratio, the likely average 2020 on-road fuel consumption was estimated to be 7.6L/100km for SI and 6.4L/100km for CI vehicles. These compared to NEDC based estimates of 5.34L/100km (SI) and 4.28L/100km (CI), both of which exceeded mandatory 2020 fuel equivalent emissions standards by 30.2% and 18.9%, respectively. The results highlight the need for more stringent technological developments for manufacturers to ensure adherence to targets, and the requirements for more accurate measurement techniques that account for discrepancies between standardised and on-road fuel consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin, Niall P.D. & Bishop, Justin D.K. & Choudhary, Ruchi & Boies, Adam M., 2015. "Can UK passenger vehicles be designed to meet 2020 emissions targets? A novel methodology to forecast fuel consumption with uncertainty analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 929-939.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:157:y:2015:i:c:p:929-939
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.03.044
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    5. Ji, Shaobo & Chen, Qiulin & Shu, Minglei & Tian, Guohong & Liao, Baoliang & Lv, Chengju & Li, Meng & Lan, Xin & Cheng, Yong, 2020. "Influence of operation management on fuel consumption of coach fleet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
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    9. Efthimios Zervas & Leonidas Vatikiotis & Zoe Gareiou & Stella Manika & Ruth Herrero-Martin, 2021. "Assessment of the Greek National Plan of Energy and Climate Change—Critical Remarks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-18, November.

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