IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v104y2013icp466-474.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact assessment of global and national biofuels developments on agriculture in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Ali, Tariq
  • Huang, Jikun
  • Yang, Jun

Abstract

This research uses GTAP model to assess the expected future effects of national and global biofuels policies on agriculture markets and food prices in Pakistan. Our results show that by 2020, global mandates on biofuels will significantly affect the prices, production and trade of major feedstock crops such as sugarcane, maize, soybean and rapeseed, especially in the USA, Brazil and EU. Global biofuels developments are projected to increase the prices of maize, rapeseed, soybean, and sugarcane in Pakistan. Pakistan will benefit from improved trade balance in agriculture under the global-only scenario. Under Pakistan plus three-producer’s biofuels scenario, the price and production of sugarcane in Pakistan will increase substantially. Under this scenario, the country will face considerable loss in agricultural trade. Consequently, food-security of net-buyers may be threatened. The income of feedstock farmers will increase. Higher crude oil prices will strongly influence commodity markets via increased production of biofuels and agricultural production costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali, Tariq & Huang, Jikun & Yang, Jun, 2013. "Impact assessment of global and national biofuels developments on agriculture in Pakistan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 466-474.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:104:y:2013:i:c:p:466-474
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.11.047
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261912008501
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.11.047?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joachim von Braun, 2008. "Rising Food Prices: What Should Be Done?," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 7(SpecialIs), pages 30-35, August.
    2. von Braun, Joachim, 2008. "Rising food prices: What should be done? [In Chinese]," Policy briefs 1 CH, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Yang, Jun & Huang, Jikun & Qiu, Huanguang & Rozelle, Scott & Sombilla, Mercy A., 2009. "Biofuels and the Greater Mekong Subregion: Assessing the impact on prices, production and trade," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(Supplemen), pages 37-46, November.
    4. Hertel, Thomas W. & Tyner, Wallace E. & Birur, Dileep K., 2008. "Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6526, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Rafael E. de Hoyos & Denis Medvedev, 2011. "Poverty Effects of Higher Food Prices: A Global Perspective," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 387-402, August.
    6. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    7. Burniaux, Jean-March & Truong, Truong P., 2002. "Gtap-E: An Energy-Environmental Version Of The Gtap Model," Technical Papers 28705, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Tiffany, Douglas G. & Eidman, Vernon R., 2003. "Factors Associated With Success Of Fuel Ethanol Producers," Staff Papers 14155, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    9. Qiu, Huanguang & Huang, Jikun & Yang, Jun & Rozelle, Scott & Zhang, Yuhua & Zhang, Yahui & Zhang, Yanli, 2010. "Bioethanol development in China and the potential impacts on its agricultural economy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 76-83, January.
    10. Hertel, Thomas W. & Maros Ivanic & Paul Preckel & John Cranfield, 2004. "The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty in Developing Countries," GTAP Working Papers 1208, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    11. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. Demirbas, Ayhan, 2009. "Political, economic and environmental impacts of biofuels: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(Supplemen), pages 108-117, November.
    13. Huang, Jikun & Hu, Ruifa & van Meijl, Hans & van Tongeren, Frank, 2004. "Biotechnology boosts to crop productivity in China: trade and welfare implications," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 27-54, October.
    14. Thomas W. Hertel & Maros Ivanic & Paul V. Preckel & John A. L. Cranfield, 2004. "The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 18(2), pages 205-236.
    15. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Khan, Muhammad Azhar & Khan, Muhammad Zahir & Zaman, Khalid & Khan, Muhammad Mushtaq & Zahoor, Hina, 2013. "RETRACTED: Causal links between greenhouse gas emissions, economic growth and energy consumption in Pakistan: A fatal disorder of society," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 166-176.
    2. Chen, Xiaoguang & Khanna, Madhu, 2018. "Effect of corn ethanol production on Conservation Reserve Program acres in the US," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 124-134.
    3. Mikulandrić, Robert & Vermeulen, Brecht & Nicolai, Bart & Saeys, Wouter, 2016. "Modelling of thermal processes during extrusion based densification of agricultural biomass residues," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1316-1331.
    4. Liu, Tingting & McConkey, Brian & Huffman, Ted & Smith, Stephen & MacGregor, Bob & Yemshanov, Denys & Kulshreshtha, Suren, 2014. "Potential and impacts of renewable energy production from agricultural biomass in Canada," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 222-229.
    5. Ajanovic, Amela & Haas, Reinhard, 2014. "On the future prospects and limits of biofuels in Brazil, the US and EU," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 730-737.
    6. Dian Iriani, Latifah & Widodo, Tri, 2019. "The Implication of B20 Policy on Environment," MPRA Paper 91313, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Chanthawong, Anuman & Dhakal, Shobhakar, 2016. "Stakeholders' perceptions on challenges and opportunities for biodiesel and bioethanol policy development in Thailand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 189-206.
    8. Shah, Syed Hasnain & Raja, Iftikhar Ahmed & Rizwan, Muhammad & Rashid, Naim & Mahmood, Qaisar & Shah, Fayyaz Ali & Pervez, Arshid, 2018. "Potential of microalgal biodiesel production and its sustainability perspectives in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 76-92.
    9. Wise, Marshall & Dooley, James & Luckow, Patrick & Calvin, Katherine & Kyle, Page, 2014. "Agriculture, land use, energy and carbon emission impacts of global biofuel mandates to mid-century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 763-773.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huang, Jikun & Yang, Jun & Msangi, Siwa & Rozelle, Scott & Weersink, Alfons, 2012. "Global biofuel production and poverty in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 246-255.
    2. Panichelli, Luis & Gnansounou, Edgard, 2015. "Impact of agricultural-based biofuel production on greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change: Key modelling choices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 344-360.
    3. Doumax, Virginie & Philip, Jean-Marc & Sarasa, Cristina, 2014. "Biofuels, tax policies and oil prices in France: Insights from a dynamic CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 603-614.
    4. Banse, M. & Sorda, G., 2010. "Impact of Different Biofuel Policy Options on Agricultural Production and Land Use in Germany," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 45, March.
    5. María Blanco & Marcel Adenäuer & Shailesh Shrestha & Arno Becker, 2012. "Methodology to assess EU Biofuel Policies: The CAPRI Approach," JRC Research Reports JRC80037, Joint Research Centre.
    6. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    7. Grant J. Allan, 2015. "The Regional Economic Impacts of Biofuels: A Review of Multisectoral Modelling Techniques and Evaluation of Applications," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 615-643, April.
    8. Farzad Taheripour & Wallace E. Tyner, 2010. "Biofuels, Policy Options, and Their Implications: Analyses Using Partial and General Equilibrium Approaches," Natural Resource Management and Policy, in: Madhu Khanna & Jürgen Scheffran & David Zilberman (ed.), Handbook of Bioenergy Economics and Policy, chapter 0, pages 365-383, Springer.
    9. Hertel, Thomas W. & Tyner, Wallace E. & Birur, Dileep K., 2008. "Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6526, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Virginie Doumax & Jean-Marc Philip & Cristina Sarasa, 2013. "Biofuels, tax policies and oil price: insights from a dynamic CGE model," EcoMod2013 5417, EcoMod.
    11. Qiu, Huanguang & Sun, Laixiang & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 2012. "Liquid biofuels in China: Current status, government policies, and future opportunities and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 3095-3104.
    12. Thaeripour, Farzad & Hertel, Thomas W. & Tyner, Wallace E. & Beckman, Jayson F. & Birur, Dileep K., 2008. "Biofuels and their By-Products: Global Economic and Environmental Implications," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6452, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. JESPER JENSEN & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2014. "Modeling Services Liberalization: The Case of Tanzania," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 9, pages 191-222, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Ujjayant Chakravorty & Marie-Hélène Hubert & Linda Nøstbakken, 2009. "Fuel Versus Food," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 645-663, September.
      • Ujjayant Chakravorty & Marie-Hélène Hubert & Linda Nøstbakken, 2009. "Fuel Versus Food," Post-Print halshs-01117673, HAL.
      • Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Hubert, Marie-Helene & Nostbakken, Linda, 2009. "Fuel versus Food," Working Papers 2009-20, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    15. Hochman, Gal & Rajagopal, Deepak & Timilsina, Govinda & Zilberman, David, 2011. "The role of inventory adjustments in quantifying factors causing food price inflation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5744, The World Bank.
    16. Rasetti, Michele & Ferreira, Joaquim B.S., Filho & Finco, Adele & Pena-Levano, Luis M. & Zhao, Xin & Opgrand, Jeffrey, 2015. "Economic and Environmental Effects of the European Biofuel Policy," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212489, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Jun Yang & Huanguang Qiu & Jikun Huang & Scott Rozelle, 2008. "Fighting global food price rises in the developing world: the response of China and its effect on domestic and world markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 453-464, November.
    18. Renzaho, Andre M.N. & Kamara, Joseph K. & Toole, Michael, 2017. "Biofuel production and its impact on food security in low and middle income countries: Implications for the post-2015 sustainable development goals," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 503-516.
    19. Geoffrey P Hammond & Hayley R Howard & Andrew Tuck, 2012. "Risk assessment of UK biofuel developments within the rapidly evolving energy and transport sectors," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 226(5), pages 526-548, October.
    20. Doumax-Tagliavini, Virginie & Sarasa, Cristina, 2018. "Looking towards policies supporting biofuels and technological change: Evidence from France," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 430-439.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:104:y:2013:i:c:p:466-474. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.