Optimistic bias in management forecasts by Japanese firms to avoid forecasting losses
AbstractListed firms in Japan are effectively compelled to report management forecasts of sales, ordinary income, and net income along with actual earnings and sales each year. Prior studies report that Japanese managers tend to announce optimistic forecasts of earnings. We show that a large part (61.6%) of the overall optimistic bias in management earnings forecasts in Japan can be explained by loss forecast avoiding behavior of a small fraction (5.25%) of firms. Such behavior is caused in part by the view of the main bank and power group that the management forecast of earnings is the manager's earnings target. Our findings suggest that the Japanese stock market recognizes such loss forecast avoidance and accordingly discounts new information in management forecasts.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal The International Journal of Accounting.
Volume (Year): 46 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620179
Japanese corporate culture Management forecasts Forecast optimism Loss forecast avoidance;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey & Shiva Rajgopal, 2004.
"The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting,"
NBER Working Papers
10550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2005. "The economic implications of corporate financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 3-73, December.
- Field, Laura & Lowry, Michelle & Shu, Susan, 2005. "Does disclosure deter or trigger litigation?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 487-507, September.
- Conroy, Robert M. & Harris, Robert S. & Park, Young S., 1998. "Fundamental information and share prices in Japan: evidence from earnings surprises and management predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-244, June.
- Degeorge, Francois & Patel, Jayendu & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1999.
"Earnings Management to Exceed Thresholds,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(1), pages 1-33, January.
- Edward B. Douthett, Jr. & Kooyul Jung & Wikil Kwak, 2004. "Japanese Corporate Groupings (Keiretsu) and the Characteristics of Analysts' Forecasts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 79-98, 09.
- Bartov, Eli & Givoly, Dan & Hayn, Carla, 2002. "The rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 173-204, June.
- Gramlich, J.D.Jeffrey D. & Limpaphayom, Piman & Ghon Rhee, S., 2004. "Taxes, keiretsu affiliation, and income shifting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 203-228, June.
- Aoki, Masahiko, 1990. "Toward an Economic Model of the Japanese Firm," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 1-27, March.
- Burgstahler, David & Dichev, Ilia, 1997. "Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 99-126, December.
- Garrod, Neil & Pirkovic, Sonja Ratej & Valentincic, Aljosa, 2006. "Testing for discontinuity or type of distribution," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 9-15.
- Kang, Jun-Koo & Shivdasani, Anil, 1995. "Firm performance, corporate governance, and top executive turnover in Japan," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 29-58, May.
- Kaplan, Steven N, 1994. "Top Executive Rewards and Firm Performance: A Comparison of Japan and the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 510-46, June.
- Müller, Hans Christian, 2011. "Forecast Errors in Undisclosed Management Sales Forecasts: The Disappearance of the Overoptimism Bias," DICE Discussion Papers 40, Heinrich‐Heine‐Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.