IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/quaeco/v86y2022icp455-470.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Meet-or-beat streak heterogeneity and equity prices

Author

Listed:
  • Neururer, Thaddeus

Abstract

Previous research finds higher stock prices for firms with extended EPS meet-or-beat streaks benchmarked to analysts’ forecasts. Due to the different persistence and reliability properties of firms’ revenues and expenses, in this study, I test whether stock valuations are different when EPS streaks are extended by firms meeting their revenue versus expense targets. I find that EPS meet-or-beat streaks that are primarily extended by firms meeting or beating analysts’ revenue forecasts are positively valued by the market but EPS streaks extended by meeting implied-expense targets are not associated with equity valuations. I also find revenue meet-or-beat streaks are likewise positively associated with equity prices but extended expense meet-or-beat streaks are negatively associated with equity valuations. These relationships are stronger for growth firms and firms that report research and development expenses. In short, my results suggest investors only value firms’ ability to consistently achieve analysts’ revenue forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Neururer, Thaddeus, 2022. "Meet-or-beat streak heterogeneity and equity prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 455-470.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:86:y:2022:i:c:p:455-470
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2022.09.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S106297692200103X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.qref.2022.09.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuan Xie, 2011. "The Market Effects of Breaking a String of Meeting or Beating Analysts’ Expectations: Downward Revision of Future Cash Flows or Increase in Cost of Equity Capital?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1-2), pages 95-118, January.
    2. Ľuboš Pástor & Veronesi Pietro, 2003. "Stock Valuation and Learning about Profitability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1749-1789, October.
    3. Thaddeus Neururer & George Papadakis & Edward J. Riedl, 2016. "Tests of investor learning models using earnings innovations and implied volatilities," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 400-437, June.
    4. Barth, ME & Elliott, JA & Finn, MW, 1999. "Market rewards associated with patterns of increasing earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 387-413.
    5. Zhang, Yiyang & Perols, Johan & Robinson, Dahlia & Smith, Thomas, 2018. "Earnings management strategies to maintain a string of meeting or beating analyst expectations," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 46-55.
    6. Beaver, William H. & McNichols, Maureen F. & Wang, Zach Z., 2020. "Increased market response to earnings announcements in the 21st century: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1).
    7. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    8. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Livnat, Joshua, 2006. "Revenue surprises and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 147-171, April.
    9. Thaddeus Neururer & George Papadakis & Edward J. Riedl, 2020. "The Effect of Reporting Streaks on Ex Ante Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(8), pages 3771-3787, August.
    10. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    11. Degeorge, Francois & Patel, Jayendu & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1999. "Earnings Management to Exceed Thresholds," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(1), pages 1-33, January.
    12. Roychowdhury, Sugata, 2006. "Earnings management through real activities manipulation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 335-370, December.
    13. Rhodes-Kropf, Matthew & Robinson, David T. & Viswanathan, S., 2005. "Valuation waves and merger activity: The empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 561-603, September.
    14. Hong, Harrison & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2009. "The price of sin: The effects of social norms on markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 15-36, July.
    15. Chin, Chen-Lung & Chen, Mei-Hui & Yu, Po-Hsiang, 2018. "Does meeting analysts’ forecasts matter in the private loan market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 321-340.
    16. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2005. "The economic implications of corporate financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 3-73, December.
    17. Frankel, Richard & Lee, Charles M. C., 1998. "Accounting valuation, market expectation, and cross-sectional stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 283-319, June.
    18. Bartov, Eli & Givoly, Dan & Hayn, Carla, 2002. "The rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 173-204, June.
    19. Roychowdhury, Sugata & Shroff, Nemit & Verdi, Rodrigo S., 2019. "The effects of financial reporting and disclosure on corporate investment: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2).
    20. Edmans, Alex, 2011. "Does the stock market fully value intangibles? Employee satisfaction and equity prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 621-640, September.
    21. Ron Kasznik & Maureen F. McNichols, 2002. "Does Meeting Earnings Expectations Matter? Evidence from Analyst Forecast Revisions and Share Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 727-759, June.
    22. Burgstahler, David & Dichev, Ilia, 1997. "Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 99-126, December.
    23. SANJEEV BHOJRAJ & PAUL HRIBAR & MARC PICCONI & JOHN McINNIS, 2009. "Making Sense of Cents: An Examination of Firms That Marginally Miss or Beat Analyst Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2361-2388, October.
    24. Lynn Rees & K. Sivaramakrishnan, 2007. "The Effect of Meeting or Beating Revenue Forecasts on the Association between Quarterly Returns and Earnings Forecast Errors," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 259-290, March.
    25. Wen He & Andrew B. Jackson & Kevin Liang, 2019. "Inconsistent Signals, Earnings Announcements, and Market Uncertainty," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 55(2), pages 411-435, June.
    26. Louis K. C. Chan & Jason Karceski & Josef Lakonishok, 2003. "The Level and Persistence of Growth Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 643-684, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dechow, Patricia & Ge, Weili & Schrand, Catherine, 2010. "Understanding earnings quality: A review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 344-401, December.
    2. Lisa Koonce & Marlys Gascho Lipe, 2010. "Earnings Trend and Performance Relative to Benchmarks: How Consistency Influences Their Joint Use," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 859-884, September.
    3. Vincent Chen & Samuel Tiras, 2015. "‘Other information’ as an explanatory factor for the opposite market reactions to earnings surprises," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 757-784, November.
    4. Sanghyuk Byun & Kristin C. Roland, 2022. "Quarterly earnings thresholds: Making the case for prior quarter earnings," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5-6), pages 690-716, May.
    5. Chang, Chu-Hsuan & Lin, Hsiou-Wei William, 2018. "Does there prevail momentum in earnings management for seasoned equity offering firms?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 111-129.
    6. William Grieser & Charles J. Hadlock & Joshua R. Pierce, 2021. "Doing good when doing well: evidence on real earnings management," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 906-932, September.
    7. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    8. Su-Ping Liu & Juan Manuel García Lara, 2013. "Market Rewards to Patterns of Increasing Earnings: Do Cash Flow Patterns, Accruals Manipulation and Real Activities Manipulation Matter?," Working Papers 1303, Departament Empresa, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, revised May 2013.
    9. Bird, Andrew & Karolyi, Stephen A. & Ruchti, Thomas G., 2019. "Understanding the “numbers game”," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2).
    10. Jared Jennings & Hojun Seo & Mark T. Soliman, 2020. "The market’s reaction to changes in relative performance rankings," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 672-725, June.
    11. Halaoua, Sameh & Hamdi, Badreddine & Mejri, Tarek, 2017. "Earnings management to exceed thresholds in continental and Anglo-Saxon accounting models: The British and French cases," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 513-529.
    12. Gilliam, Thomas A. & Heflin, Frank & Paterson, Jeffrey S., 2015. "Evidence that the zero-earnings discontinuity has disappeared," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 117-132.
    13. Chin, Chen-Lung & Chen, Mei-Hui & Yu, Po-Hsiang, 2018. "Does meeting analysts’ forecasts matter in the private loan market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 321-340.
    14. Edmonds, Christopher T. & Edmonds, Jennifer E. & Fu, Richard & Jenkins, David S., 2018. "Price momentum and the premium for meeting or beating analysts' forecasts of earnings," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 34-47.
    15. Zhang, Yiyang & Perols, Johan & Robinson, Dahlia & Smith, Thomas, 2018. "Earnings management strategies to maintain a string of meeting or beating analyst expectations," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 46-55.
    16. Al-Shattarat, Basiem & Hussainey, Khaled & Al-Shattarat, Wasim, 2022. "The impact of abnormal real earnings management to meet earnings benchmarks on future operating performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    17. McInnis, John & Collins, Daniel W., 2011. "The effect of cash flow forecasts on accrual quality and benchmark beating," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 219-239, April.
    18. Sondes Draief & Adel Chouaya, 2012. "Effet de la gestion comptable et réelle des résultats sur le coût de la dette : analyse avant et après SOX," Post-Print hal-00691020, HAL.
    19. Iatridis, George Emmanuel, 2016. "Financial reporting language in financial statements: Does pessimism restrict the potential for managerial opportunism?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-17.
    20. Lucie Courteau & Jennifer L. Kao & Yao Tian, 2015. "Does Accrual Management Impair the Performance of Earnings-Based Valuation Models?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1-2), pages 101-137, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Valuation; Revenues; Expenses; Meet-or-beat streaks; Analyst forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • M40 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - General
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:86:y:2022:i:c:p:455-470. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.