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Local sensitivity and diagnostic tests

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Author Info
Jan R. Magnus
Andrey L. Vasnev

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Abstract

In this paper, we confront sensitivity analysis with diagnostic testing. Every model is misspecified (in the sense that no model coincides with the data-generating process), but a model is useful if the parameters of interest (the focus) are not sensitive to small perturbations in the underlying assumptions. The study of the effect of these violations on the focus is called sensitivity analysis. Diagnostic testing, on the other hand, attempts to find out whether a nuisance parameter is (statistically) "large" or "small". Both aspects are important, but traditional applied econometrics tends to use only diagnostics and forget about sensitivity analysis. We develop a theory of sensitivity in a maximum likelihood framework, give conditions under which the diagnostic and the sensitivity are asymptotically independent, and demonstrate with three core examples that this independence is the rule rather than the exception, thus underlying the importance of sensitivity analysis. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2007

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2007.00204.x
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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal Econometrics Journal.

Volume (Year): 10 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (03)
Pages: 166-192
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Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:10:y:2007:i:1:p:166-192

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  1. Andrews, Donald W. K., 1998. "Hypothesis testing with a restricted parameter space," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-199, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Banerjee, Anurag N. & Magnus, Jan R., 2000. "On the sensitivity of the usual t- and F-tests to covariance misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 157-176, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Magnus, Jan R., 1978. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the GLS model with unknown parameters in the disturbance covariance matrix," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 281-312, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Banerjee, Anurag N. & Magnus, Jan R., 1999. "The sensitivity of OLS when the variance matrix is (partially) unknown," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 295-323, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Karim M. Abadir & Jan R. Magnus, 2002. "Notation in econometrics: a proposal for a standard," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 76-90, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Shi, Lei & Wang, Xueren, 1999. "Local influence in ridge regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 341-353, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Edward E. Leamer, 1983. "Global Sensitivity Results for Generalized Least Squares Estimates," UCLA Economics Working Papers 006, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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