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Political Business Cycles and Central Bank Independence

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Author Info
John Maloney (University of Exeter)
Andrew C. Pickering (University of Bristol)
Kaddour Hadri (University of Liverpool)

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Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic model of Rational Partisan Business Cycles in which wage contracts overlap elections and wage setters have to make a prediction about the election result. Empirical analysis of 20 OECD countries supports the theoretical implication that left wing incumbents increase output, but increased expectation of a left wing regime reduces it. The model is extended to incorporate the effects of alternative measures of Central Bank Independence (CBI). The measure of objective independence outperforms the other measures and it is found that CBI reduces politically induced business cycles. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2003

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 113 (2003)
Issue (Month): 486 (March)
Pages: C167-C181
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:113:y:2003:i:486:p:c167-c181

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Kilponen, Juha & Mayes, David & Vilmunen, Jouko, 1999. "Labour Market Flexibility in Northern Europe," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa088, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Maloney, John & Andrew Pickering & Kaddour Hadri, 2002. "Which Type of Central Bank Smooths the Political Business Cycle?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 135, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," NBER Working Papers 1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. John Maloney & Bernard Pearson & Andrew Pickering, 2003. "Behind the cube rule: implications of, and evidence against a fractal electoral geography," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 35(8), pages 1405-1414, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Alesina, Alberto & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Political Cycles in OECD Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 59(4), pages 663-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Hadri, Kaddour & Lockwood, Ben & Maloney, John, 1998. "Does Central Bank Independence Smooth the Political Business Cycle in Inflation? Some OECD Evidence," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(4), pages 377-95, September.
  9. Forder, James, 1998. "Central Bank Independence--Conceptual Clarifications and Interim Assessment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 307-34, July.
  10. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-78, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-62, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Alesina, Alberto, 1988. "Credibility and Policy Convergence in a Two-Party System with Rational Voters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 796-805, September.
  13. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. JoAnne Morris & Tonny Lybek, 2004. "Central Bank Governance: A Survey of Boards and Management," IMF Working Papers 04/226, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Burton Abrams & Plamen Iossifov, 2006. "Does the Fed Contribute to a Political Business Cycle?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 249-262, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ansgar Belke & Niklas Potrafke, 2009. "Does Government Ideology Matter in Monetary Policy? – A Panel Data Analysis for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0094, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
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