IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-21-00001.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A textual analysis of central bank communication the case of Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Haryo Kuncoro

    (Faculty of Economics, State University of Jakarta)

  • Gatot Nazir Ahmad

    (Faculty of Economics, State University of Jakarta)

  • Dianta Sebayang

    (Faculty of Economics, State University of Jakarta)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is two-fold: (1) to assess the textual aspects of the Central Bank of Indonesia's monetary policy communication and (2) identify their potential relation to the inflation expectations. Using monthly policy interest rate press release announcements, we found that the text readability is relatively stable, although the text complexity is higher. However, the clarity and readability of the text are negatively correlated with the inflation expectations. Meanwhile, the tone of the text is positively associated with the inflation expectations. They suggest that the central bank should strengthen the quality of the text announced and pay more attention to the informal communication channels. The high quality and use of informal communication channels provide additional pieces of information in shaping price expectations in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Haryo Kuncoro & Gatot Nazir Ahmad & Dianta Sebayang, 2021. "A textual analysis of central bank communication the case of Indonesia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 2158-2172.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-21-00001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2021/Volume241/EB-21-V41-I3-P186.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2005. "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 498-527, April.
    2. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Eric Girardin & Arnoldo Lopez-Marmolejo, 2019. "Mexico¡¯s Monetary Policy Communication and Money Markets," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(2), pages 81-97, February.
    3. Stephen Hansen & Michael McMahon, 2016. "Shocking Language: Understanding the Macroeconomic Effects of Central Bank Communication," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Richhild Moessner, 2014. "Effects of explicit FOMC policy-rate guidance on equities and risk measures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(18), pages 2139-2153, June.
    5. Jansen, David-Jan & de Haan, Jakob, 2007. "Were verbal efforts to support the euro effective? A high-frequency analysis of ECB statements," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 245-259, March.
    6. David‐Jan Jansen, 2011. "Does The Clarity Of Central Bank Communication Affect Volatility In Financial Markets? Evidence From Humphrey‐Hawkins Testimonies," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(4), pages 494-509, October.
    7. Ullrich, Katrin, 2008. "Inflation expectations of experts and ECB communication," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 93-108, March.
    8. G. C. Montes & R. T. F. Nicolay, 2017. "Does clarity of central bank communication affect credibility? Evidences considering governor-specific effects," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(32), pages 3163-3180, July.
    9. Aakriti Mathur & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2019. "Analysing monetary policy statements of the Reserve Bank of India," IHEID Working Papers 08-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    10. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Curi, Alexandre, 2017. "Disagreement in expectations about public debt, monetary policy credibility and inflation risk premium," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 46-61.
    11. Benjamin Born & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2012. "Communicating About Macro-prudential Supervision – A New Challenge for Central Banks," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 179-203, June.
    12. Haryo Kuncoro, 2021. "Central Bank Communication and Policy Interest Rate," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(1), pages 76-91, January.
    13. Young Joon Lee & Soohyon Kim & Ki Young Park, 2019. "Deciphering Monetary Policy Board Minutes with Text Mining: The Case of South Korea," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 35, pages 471-511.
    14. Pierre Siklos, 2011. "Central bank transparency: another look," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 929-933.
    15. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Eric Girardin & Arnoldo Lopez Marmolejo, 2015. "Mexico’s monetary policy communication and money markets," Working Papers 1515, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    16. Blinder, Alan S., 2007. "Monetary policy by committee: Why and how?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 106-123, March.
    17. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Eda Gulsen & Hakan Kara, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Central Bank Communication in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 12(2), pages 1-10.
    18. G. C. Montes & L. V. Oliveira & A. Curi & R. T. F. Nicolay, 2016. "Effects of transparency, monetary policy signalling and clarity of central bank communication on disagreement about inflation expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 590-607, February.
    19. Sahminan Sahminan, 2008. "Effectiveness of monetary policy communication in Indonesia and Thailand," BIS Working Papers 262, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Rodolfo Nicolay & Ana Jordânia de Oliveira, 2019. "Inflation volatility, monetary policy signaling and clarity of the central bank communication," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(2), pages 266-283, March.
    21. David O. Lucca & Francesco Trebbi, 2009. "Measuring Central Bank Communication: An Automated Approach with Application to FOMC Statements," NBER Working Papers 15367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. David-Jan Jansen & Richhild Moessner, 2016. "Communicating dissent on monetary policy: Evidence from central bank minutes," DNB Working Papers 512, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    23. Rozkrut, Marek & Rybinski, Krzysztof & Sztaba, Lucyna & Szwaja, Radoslaw, 2007. "Quest for central bank communication: Does it pay to be "talkative"?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 176-206, March.
    24. Pongsak Luangaram & Warapong Wongwachara, 2017. "More Than Words: A Textual Analysis of Monetary Policy Communication," PIER Discussion Papers 54, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    25. Ruttachai Seelajaroen & Pornanong Budsaratragoon & Boonlert Jitmaneeroj, 2020. "Do monetary policy transparency and central bank communication reduce interest rate disagreement?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 368-393, April.
    26. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Nicolay, Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca, 2017. "Is communication clarity from fiscal authority useful? Evidence from an emerging economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 35-51.
    27. Mr. Calixte Ahokpossi & Agnes Isnawangsih & Md. Shah Naoaj & Ting Yan, 2020. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Communication in an Emerging Economy: The Case of Indonesia," IMF Working Papers 2020/109, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haryo Kuncoro, 2021. "Central Bank Communication and Policy Interest Rate," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(1), pages 76-91, January.
    2. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Nicolay, Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca & Acar, Tatiana, 2019. "Do fiscal communication and clarity of fiscal announcements affect public debt uncertainty? Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 38-60.
    3. Ferrara, Federico Maria & Angino, Siria, 2022. "Does clarity make central banks more engaging? Lessons from ECB communications," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Victor Maia, 2023. "The reaction of disagreements in inflation expectations to fiscal sentiment obtained from information in official communiqués," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 828-859, October.
    5. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca Nicolay, 2015. "Central bank’s perception on inflation and inflation expectations of experts," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(6), pages 1142-1158, November.
    6. Rodolfo Tomás Da Fonseca Nicolay & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2014. "Comunicação Do Banco Central,Expectativas De Inflação E Profecia Auto-Realizável: Evidências Para Obrasil," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 046, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Joaquin Iglesias & Alvaro Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo, 2017. "How do the EM Central Bank talk? A Big Data approach to the Central Bank of Turkey," Working Papers 17/24, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    8. Thiago Cacicedo Cidad & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2016. "Does Central Bank’S Perception Regarding The State Of The Economy Affect Entrepreneurs’ Expectations? Are Entrepreneurs’ Expectations Important For Investment? Empirical Evidence From Brazil," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 035, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    9. Ruttachai Seelajaroen & Pornanong Budsaratragoon & Boonlert Jitmaneeroj, 2020. "Do monetary policy transparency and central bank communication reduce interest rate disagreement?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 368-393, April.
    10. G. C. Montes & L. V. Oliveira & A. Curi & R. T. F. Nicolay, 2016. "Effects of transparency, monetary policy signalling and clarity of central bank communication on disagreement about inflation expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 590-607, February.
    11. Thang, Doan Ngoc & Anh, Pham Thi Hoang & Long, Trinh & Dong, Do Phy & Dat, Luong Van, 2022. "Monetary Stance and Favorableness of Monetary Policy in the Media: The Case of Viet Nam," ADBI Working Papers 1325, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    12. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Nicolay, Rodolfo & Pereira, Flavio, 2022. "Does fiscal sentiment matter for sovereign risk?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 18-30.
    13. Ehrmann, Michael & Talmi, Jonathan, 2020. "Starting from a blank page? Semantic similarity in central bank communication and market volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 48-62.
    14. Guo, Junjie & Guo, Yumei & Miao, Shan & Pang, Xin, 2021. "An investigation of semantic similarity in PBOC’s communication on RMB volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 441-455.
    15. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy and financial markets: evidence from Twitter traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    16. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Paulo Henrique Lourenço Luna, 2022. "Do fiscal opacity, fiscal impulse, and fiscal credibility affect disagreement about economic growth forecasts? Empirical evidence from Brazil considering the period of political instability and presid," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2356-2393, November.
    17. Donato Masciandaro & Oana Peia & Davide Romelli, 2022. "Central Bank Communication and Social Media: From Silence to Twitter," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22187, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    18. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Igor Mendes Marcelino, 2023. "Uncertainties and disagreements in expectations of professional forecasters: Evidence from an inflation targeting developing country," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 937-956, July.
    19. Angelo M. Fasolo & Flávia M. Graminho & Saulo B. Bastos, 2021. "Seeing the Forest for the Trees: using hLDA models to evaluate communication in Banco Central do Brasil," Working Papers Series 555, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    20. Hamza Bennani & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "The (home) bias of European central bankers: new evidence based on speeches," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(11), pages 1114-1131, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Bank Communication; Text Mining; Monetary Policy; Inflation Expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-21-00001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.