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Effectiveness of monetary policy communication in Indonesia and Thailand

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  • Sahminan Sahminan
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    Abstract

    In this paper we investigate the effectiveness of Bank Indonesia's and Bank of Thailand's monetary policy communication. We focus on two channels of communication: monetary policy statements, and inter-meeting statements. Although the structure of Bank Indonesia's and Bank of Thailand's monetary policy statements have some differences, most of the statements contain policy inclination. In addition, during inter-meeting periods, members of their board of governors often convey statements that contain policy inclination. Our empirical results show that to some extent Bank Indonesia's and Bank of Thailand's monetary policy statements and inter-meeting statements move short-term interest rates effectively. We find that there is asymmetry in the effects of the statements, that is, the statements with loose policy inclination tend to be more effective relative to the statements with tight policy inclination.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 262.

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    Length: 31 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:262

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    Keywords: communication; effectiveness; monetary policy; Bank Indonesia; Bank of Thailand;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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    1. Ellis Connolly & Marion Kohler, 2004. "News and Interest Rate Expectations: A Study of Six Central Banks," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.), The Future of Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 1038, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    3. Guthrie, Graeme & Wright, Julian, 2000. "Open mouth operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 489-516, October.
    4. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Eli M. Remolona, 2008. "Managing expectations by words and deeds: Monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific," Working Papers 0802, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    5. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 509-541, 03.
    6. Selva Demiralp & Oscar Jorda, . "The Announcement Effect: Evidence from Open Market Desk Data," Department of Economics 01-04, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    7. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    8. Rozkrut, Marek & Rybinski, Krzysztof & Sztaba, Lucyna & Szwaja, Radoslaw, 2007. "Quest for central bank communication: Does it pay to be "talkative"?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 176-206, March.
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