IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-17-00288.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling the nexus between oil shocks, inflation and commodity prices: Do Asymmetries really matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Naveed Raza

    (Energy and Sustainable Development (ESD), Montpellier Business School, France)

  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad

    (Energy and Sustainable Development (ESD), Montpellier Business School, France)

  • Muhammad Shahbaz

    (Energy and Sustainable Development (ESD), Montpellier Business School, France)

  • Aviral kumar Tiwari

    (Energy and Sustainable Development (ESD), Montpellier Business School, France)

Abstract

This study examines the asymmetric relation between oil shocks, U.S inflation and major commodity price indices of energy and non-energy commodities, vegetable oil and meals, raw material, industrial metal and precious metals. We utilize a novel technique namely nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (hereafter NARDL) on a large monthly data set, ranging from January 1970 till December 2016, to study the short- and long-run asymmetric dynamics between major commodity price indices and oil and inflation shocks. Our findings reveal that both the oil and inflation shocks have differential impact across commodity prices over the both short- and long-run. Findings also support the proposition that moderate inflation and stable oil prices are conducive to the both short- and long-run stability in the prices of commodities. However, commodities may be regarded as better hedging tool and may retain their purchasing power during high inflationary periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Naveed Raza & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Muhammad Shahbaz & Aviral kumar Tiwari, 2017. "Modeling the nexus between oil shocks, inflation and commodity prices: Do Asymmetries really matter?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2374-2383.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00288
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2017/Volume37/EB-17-V37-I4-P212.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Bloch, Harry, 2016. "Explaining commodity prices through asymmetric oil shocks: Evidence from nonlinear models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 34-48.
    2. Paul Alagidede & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "Can common stocks provide a hedge against inflation? Evidence from African countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 91-100, August.
    3. Subrata Ghatak & Jalal Siddiki, 2001. "The use of the ARDL approach in estimating virtual exchange rates in India," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 573-583.
    4. Lahiani, Amine & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Linkages between financial sector CDS spreads and macroeconomic influence in a nonlinear setting," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 443-456.
    5. Beckmann, Joscha, 2013. "Nonlinear adjustment, purchasing power parity and the role of nominal exchange rates and prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 176-190.
    6. Zhao, Lin & Zhang, Xun & Wang, Shouyang & Xu, Shanying, 2016. "The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 101-110.
    7. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Gold as an inflation hedge in a time-varying coefficient framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 208-222.
    8. Ciner, Cetin & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Lucey, Brian M., 2013. "Hedges and safe havens: An examination of stocks, bonds, gold, oil and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 202-211.
    9. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    10. Delatte, Anne-Laure & Lopez, Claude, 2013. "Commodity and equity markets: Some stylized facts from a copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5346-5356.
    11. Wang, Kuan-Min & Lee, Yuan-Ming & Thi, Thanh-Binh Nguyen, 2011. "Time and place where gold acts as an inflation hedge: An application of long-run and short-run threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 806-819, May.
    12. Aktürk, Halit, 2016. "Do stock returns provide a good hedge against inflation? An empirical assessment using Turkish data during periods of structural change," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 230-246.
    13. Li, Lifang & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Zheng, Xinwei, 2010. "An analysis of inflation and stock returns for the UK," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 519-532, December.
    14. Raza, Naveed & Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Syed & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016. "Asymmetric impact of gold, oil prices and their volatilities on stock prices of emerging markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 290-301.
    15. Granger, Clive W.J. & YOON, GAWON, 2002. "Hidden Cointegration," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9qn5f61j, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    16. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 374-392.
    17. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    18. Wo-Chiang Lee & Hui-Na Lin, 2012. "Threshold effects in the relationships between USD and gold futures by panel smooth transition approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(11), pages 1065-1070, July.
    19. Lee, Bong Soo, 2010. "Stock returns and inflation revisited: An evaluation of the inflation illusion hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1257-1273, June.
    20. Brown, William O. & Huang, Dayong & Wang, Fang, 2016. "Inflation illusion and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 14-24.
    21. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Sahadudheen, I., 2015. "Understanding the nexus between oil and gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 85-91.
    22. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Dar, Arif Billah & Bhanja, Niyati & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2015. "Stock returns and inflation in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 23-31.
    23. Namvar, Ethan & Phillips, Blake & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Raghavendra Rau, P., 2016. "Do hedge funds dynamically manage systematic risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-15.
    24. Iqbal, Javed, 2017. "Does gold hedge stock market, inflation and exchange rate risks? An econometric investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-17.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raza, Naveed & Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Syed & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016. "Asymmetric impact of gold, oil prices and their volatilities on stock prices of emerging markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 290-301.
    2. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ghodsi, Seyed Hesam & Hadzic, Muris, 2020. "Asymmetric causality between stock returns and usual hedges: An industry-level analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    3. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Adeolu O. Adewuyi & Olabanji B. Awodumi & David Roubaud, 2022. "Relationship between stock returns and inflation: New evidence from the US using wavelet and causality methods," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4515-4540, October.
    4. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Tahir, Mohammad Iqbal & Ali, Imran & Rehman, Ijaz Ur, 2014. "Is gold investment a hedge against inflation in Pakistan? A co-integration and causality analysis in the presence of structural breaks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 190-205.
    5. K.S., Sujit & Ray, Subhajyoti, 2023. "Linear and nonlinear asymmetric relationship in crude oil, gold, stock market and exchange rates: An evidence from the UAE," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Kumar, Satish, 2017. "On the nonlinear relation between crude oil and gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 219-224.
    7. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Qureshi, Fiza & Arif, Muhammad & Balli, Faruk, 2021. "Asymmetric relationship between gold and Islamic stocks in bearish, normal and bullish market conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M, 2014. "On the economic determinants of the gold–inflation relation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 101-108.
    9. Othman, Nurhuda & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Granger-causality between palm oil, gold and stocks (islamic and conventional): Malaysian evidence based on ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 106777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Salisu, Afees A. & Adediran, Idris, 2020. "Gold as a hedge against oil shocks: Evidence from new datasets for oil shocks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    11. Nassar S. Al-Nassar & Razzaque H. Bhatti, 2019. "Are common stocks a hedge against inflation in emerging markets?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 421-455, July.
    12. Hemrit, Wael & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi, 2021. "Insurance and geopolitical risk: Fresh empirical evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 320-334.
    13. Bošnjak Mile & Novak Ivan & Bašić Maja, 2021. "Capital Market Returns and Inflation Nexus in Croatia: Wavelet Coherence Analysis," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, vol. 12(2), pages 253-267, December.
    14. Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Awodumi, Olabanji B. & Abodunde, Temitope T., 2019. "Analysing the gold-stock nexus using VARMA-BEKK-AGARCH and Quantile regression models: New evidence from South Africa and Nigeria," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 348-362.
    15. Madziwa, Lawrence & Pillalamarry, Mallikarjun & Chatterjee, Snehamoy, 2022. "Gold price forecasting using multivariate stochastic model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    16. Avazkhodjaev S. Shakhabiddinovich & Noor Azuddin bin Yakob & Lau Wee Yeap, 2022. "Asymmetric Effect of Renewable Energy Generation and Clean Energy on Green Economy Stock Price: ANonlinear ARDL Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 407-415.
    17. Arnold, Stephan & Auer, Benjamin R., 2015. "What do scientists know about inflation hedging?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 187-214.
    18. Chirwa, Themba G. & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2020. "Determinants of gold price movements: An empirical investigation in the presence of multiple structural breaks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    19. Karasoy, Alper, 2022. "Is innovative technology a solution to Japan's long-run energy insecurity? Dynamic evidence from the linear and nonlinear methods," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    20. Das, Debojyoti & Bhatia, Vaneet & Kumar, Surya Bhushan & Basu, Sankarshan, 2022. "Do precious metals hedge crude oil volatility jumps?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Oil shocks; NARDL; commodities and asymmetries.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00288. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.