IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-15-00726.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

In search of causality between debt and growth: a graph theoretic approach

Author

Listed:
  • Nazmus Sadat Khan

    (Department of Economics, University of Muenster)

Abstract

This paper detects the direction of causality between government debt and economic growth in a multivariate framework using graph theoretic approach for six major OECD countries. The results show that growth causes debt in most countries. A comparison between the full sample and a reduced sample (leaving out the periods of recent financial crisis) indicates that the causal direction from growth to debt is a more recent phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Nazmus Sadat Khan, 2016. "In search of causality between debt and growth: a graph theoretic approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 677-687.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-15-00726
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2016/Volume36/EB-16-V36-I2-P66.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saghaian, Sayed H., 2010. "The Impact of the Oil Sector on Commodity Prices: Correlation or Causation?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 477-485, August.
    2. Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 745-767, December.
    3. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    4. Jinjarak, Yothin & Sheffrin, Steven M., 2011. "Causality, real estate prices, and the current account," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 233-246, June.
    5. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 705-739, October.
    6. Puente-Ajovín, Miguel & Sanso-Navarro, Marcos, 2015. "Granger causality between debt and growth: Evidence from OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 66-77.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    8. Lof, Matthijs & Malinen, Tuomas, 2014. "Does sovereign debt weaken economic growth? A panel VAR analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 403-407.
    9. Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 745-767, December.
    10. Bernd Kempa & Nazmus Sadat Khan, 2016. "Government debt and economic growth in the G7 countries: are there any causal linkages?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 440-443, April.
    11. Titus O. Awokuse & David A. Bessler, 2003. "Vector Autoregressions, Policy Analysis, and Directed Acyclic Graphs: An Application to the U.S. Economy," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6, pages 1-24, May.
    12. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
    13. Alexandru Minea & Antoine Parent, 2012. "Is High Public Debt Always Harmful to Economic Growth? Reinhart and Rogoff and some complex nonlinearities," Working Papers 12-08, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    14. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guerini, Mattia & Moneta, Alessio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "The Janus-Faced Nature Of Debt: Results From A Data-Driven Cointegrated Svar Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 24-54, January.
    2. Yannis Dafermos, 2015. "The ‘other half’ of the public debt–economic growth relationship: a note on Reinhart and Rogoff," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 20-28, April.
    3. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil & Luo, Yun, 2018. "Revisiting the bi-directional causality between debt and growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-74.
    4. Markus Ahlborn & Rainer Schweickert, 2018. "Public debt and economic growth – economic systems matter," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 373-403, April.
    5. Luiggi Donayre & Ariuna Taivan, 2017. "Causality between Public Debt and Real Growth in the OECD: A Country-by-country Analysis," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(2), pages 156-170, June.
    6. Juergen Amann & Paul Middleditch, 2017. "Growth in a time of austerity: evidence from the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(4), pages 349-375, September.
    7. Guerini, Mattia & Moneta, Alessio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "The Janus-Faced Nature Of Debt: Results From A Data-Driven Cointegrated Svar Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 24-54, January.
    8. İbrahim ÖZMEN, 2022. "New Evidence from Government Debt and Economic Growth in Core and Periphery European Union Countries : Asymmetric Panel Causality," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 167-187, October.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3l2vounfl99nvqsr0k24sn3k5l is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/574jpbbn0f8f5r56hqi6mjgm9d is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015. "“On the bi-directional causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in EMU countries”," IREA Working Papers 201512, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2015.
    12. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "The causal relationship between debt and growth in EMU countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 974-989.
    13. Jan Jacobs & Kazuo Ogawa & Elmer Sterken & Ichiro Tokutsu, 2020. "Public Debt, Economic Growth and the Real Interest Rate: A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(12), pages 1377-1394, March.
    14. Goldberg, Andrew & Romalis, John, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth in U.S. States," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    15. Janice Boucher Breuer & John McDermott, 2019. "Debt And Depression," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 714-730, October.
    16. Balázs Égert, 2015. "Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 226-238.
    17. Bitar, Nicholas & Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2018. "Were Reinhart and Rogoff right?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 614-620.
    18. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They're Different: Heterogeneity;and Nonlinearity in the Relationship;between Debt and Growth," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 92, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    19. Guo, Minjie & McDermott, John, 2020. "Sovereign debt and the length of economic depressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 79-91.
    20. Carsten Colombier & Christian Breuer, 2020. "Debt and growth: historical evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2594-2609.
    21. Puente-Ajovín, Miguel & Sanso-Navarro, Marcos, 2015. "Granger causality between debt and growth: Evidence from OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 66-77.
    22. Obiyathulla Ismath Bacha, Abbas Mirakhor, Hossein Askari, 2015. "Risk Sharing in Corporate and Public Finance: The Contribution of Islamic Finance," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 68(274), pages 187-213.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    government debt; economic growth; graph theory; causality analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-15-00726. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.