Bias-Trigger Manipulation and Task-Form Understanding in Monty Hall
AbstractMonty Hall is a difficult task which triggers multiple biases. With sophisticated subjects and treatments that reverse and eliminate these triggers, non-rational choice is greatly reduced. Among task-familiar subjects, non-rational choice can can fall to background-error levels. But as our data also show, task-form recognition is necessary but not sufficient for rational choice when the task calls for conditional probability reasoning rather than simple rule-based behavior, as in e.g. 'Switch in Monty Hall.' Task-form understanding, a more stringent requirement, proves to be necessary and sufficient for rational choice in generalized Monty Hall conditional probability reasoning tasks.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.
Volume (Year): 34 (2014)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Monty Hall; task-form understanding; bias triggers; default effect; illusion of control; errors of omission and commission;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
- C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments
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