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Long-Run And Short-Run Dynamics Of Foreign Exchange Reserves Flows And Domestic Credit In Pakistan

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  • KHAN, Muhammad Arshad

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Abstract

This study formulates and examines the monetary approach to the balance of payments by incorporating the currency substitution version of money demand function for Pakistan over the period 1962-2005 using FM-OLS and Johansen-Juselius cointegration techniques. The results suggest that real output, real exchange rate and domestic credit play an important role in the determination of foreign exchange reserves in Pakistan in long-as well in short-run. Moreover, the monetary authorities sterilize foreign exchange reserves by 12% in long-run and 66% in short-run. The results support the evidence of long-run causality running from reserves to domestic credit. One important policy implication from the empirical analysis is that the validity of the monetary approach to the balance of payments and the effectiveness of monetary policy depend on the nature of the money demand function. As the specification of money demand has changes the evidence based on monetary approach has also changes.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies .

Volume (Year): 5 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 61-78

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:5:y2008:i:1_5

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Related research

Keywords: Monetary Approach; Foreign Exchange Reserves; Domestic Credit; Cointegration;

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References

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  1. Khan, Muhammad Arshad & Sajjid, Muhammad Zabir, 2005. "The Exchange Rates and Monetary Dynamics in Pakistan: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Apporach," MPRA Paper 6752, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 866R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1989.
  3. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  4. Wilford, D Sykes & Wilford, Walton T, 1978. "On the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments: The Small, Open Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 319-23, March.
  5. Mohammad Ahmed, 1992. "Pakistan's Exchange Rate Policy: An Econometric Investigation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 49-74.
  6. Edward Tower, 1975. "Money demand and the terms of trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 111(4), pages 623-633, December.
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  8. Arango, Sebastian & Ishaq Nadiri, M., 1981. "Demand for money in open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 69-83.
  9. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
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  11. Currie, D A, 1976. "Some Criticisms of the Monetary Analysis of Balance of Payments Correction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(343), pages 508-22, September.
  12. Connolly, Michael & Taylor, Dean, 1976. "Testing the Monetary Approach to Devaluation in Developing Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages 849-59, August.
  13. Johnson, Harry G, 1977. "The Monetary Approach to Balance of Payments Theory and Policy: Explanation and Policy Implications," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 44(175), pages 217-29, August.
  14. Alawode , Abayomi A., 1997. "Some Criticisms of the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 50(1), pages 13-25.
  15. Hargreaves, Colin P. (ed.), 1994. "Non-Stationary Time Series Analysis and Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773924.
  16. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-77, August.
  17. G. Booth & Mustafa Chowdhory, 1992. "Canadian foreign exchange policies: Intervention, control, cointegration," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 21-33, March.
  18. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Techaratanachai, Ampa, 2001. "Currency substitution in Thailand," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 141-145, February.
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