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Unit-Root, Cointegration and Granger Causality Test Results for Export and Growth in OECD Countries

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  • Konya, Laszlo

Abstract

This article is a supplement to Kónya (2004) which investigates the possibility of the export-led growth and growth-driven export hypotheses by testing for Granger causality between the logarithms of real exports and real GDP in twenty-five OECD countries. In Kónya (2004) two complementary testing strategies were applied. First, depending on the time series properties of the data, causality was tested with Wald tests within finite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) models in levels and/or in first-differences. Then, with no need for pre-testing, a modified Wald (MWald) procedure was used in augmented level VAR systems. For brevity, the results of the unit root, cointegration and MWald tests were not reported in Kónya (2004). The aim of the current article is to fill in this gap.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies .

Volume (Year): 1 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 67-94

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:1:y2004:i:1_10

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Related research

Keywords: unit root; cointegration; causality; economic growth; export; OECD countries;

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References

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  1. Zapata, Hector O & Rambaldi, Alicia N, 1997. "Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 285-98, May.
  2. Dufour, J.M. & Renault, E., 1995. "Short-Run and Long-Rub Causality in Time Series: Theory," Cahiers de recherche 9538, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  3. Niels Haldrup, 1998. "An Econometric Analysis of I(2) Variables," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 595-650, December.
  4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  5. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:1:p:95-115 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Judith A. Giles & Sadaf Mirza, 1999. "Some Pretesting Issues on Testing for Granger Noncausality," Econometrics Working Papers 9914, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  7. Guisan, M.Carmen, 2001. "Causality and Cointegration between Consumption and GDP in 25 OECD countries: limitations of cointegration approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 39-61.
  8. Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 91-115, March.
  9. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  10. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  11. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
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Cited by:
  1. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Measuring macroeconomic volatility - Applications to export revenue data, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.
  2. HAMDI, Helmi & SBIA, Rashid, 2012. "Modeling causality between Electricity consumption and Economic Growth in BIICS Countries," MPRA Paper 49909, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
  3. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Mesurer l’instabilité macroéconomique - Applications aux données de recettes d’exportation, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.
  4. Dedeoğlu, Dinçer & Kaya, Hüseyin, 2013. "Energy use, exports, imports and GDP: New evidence from the OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 469-476.
  5. Edgardo Sica, 2007. "Causality between Energy and Economic Growth: the Italian case," Quaderni DSEMS 03-2007, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
  6. António Afonso & Sebastian Hauptmeier, 2009. "Public Debt and Economic Growth: a Granger Causality Panel Data Approach," Working Papers Department of Economics 2009/24, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  7. Ji, In Bae & Chung, Chanjin, 2012. "Causality Between Captive Supplies and Cash Market Prices in the U.S. Cattle Procurement Market," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(3), December.

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