Trade Openness And Economic Growth Can We Estimate The Precise Effect?
AbstractWhile various theoretical models predict that openness to international trade accelerates productivity and promotes economic growth, the empirical evidence has been mixed or imprecise. This paper investigates the issue using two panel data sets: one of 56 countries covering the period 1951-1998, and another of 105 countries over 1960-1997. The results show that the effect of trade openness on economic growth is positive, permanent, statistically significant, and economically sizable. This effect is robust across the two data sets used and a number of different estimation methods and lag lengths. Specifically, it is shown that increasing trade (exports plus imports) as a fraction of GDP by 10 percentage points, permanently increases the real growth rate of GDP per capita by 0.25 to 0.3 percent.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.
Volume (Year): 3 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
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- Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2012.
"Does trade openness affect long run growth? Cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan,"
Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2325-2339.
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