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Sources Of Economic Growth In Iran: A Cointegration Analysis In The Presence Of Structural Breaks, 1960-2003

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  • Pahlavani, M.

Abstract

This paper examines the major determinants of GDP growth in Iran using annual time series data spanning from 1960 to 2003. The Iranian economy has been subject to a multitude of structural changes and regime shifts during the sample period. Thus, time series properties of the data are first analysed by Zivot-Andrews (1992) model. The empirical results based on this model indicate that there is not enough evidence against the null hypothesis of unit roots for all of the variables under investigation. Taking into account the resulting endogenously determined structural breaks; the Saikkonen and Luetkephol (2000) cointegration approach is then employed to determine the long-run drivers of economic growth. This cointegration technique accommodates potential structural breaks that could undermine the existence of a long-run relationship between GDP growth and its main determinants. Empirical estimates indicate that in the long-term, policies aimed at promoting various types of physical investment, human capital, trade openness and technological innovations will improve economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Pahlavani, M., 2005. "Sources Of Economic Growth In Iran: A Cointegration Analysis In The Presence Of Structural Breaks, 1960-2003," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(4).
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:5:y:2005:i:4_5
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ahmed, Monir Uddin & Nurul Hossain, A.K.M. & Hasanuzzaman, Syed, 2015. "Exploring the depth of energy penetration in economic advancement: Perspective of Bangladesh," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1033-1047.
    3. Roula INGLESI-LOTZ & Renee VAN EYDEN & Charlotte DU TOIT, 2014. "The evolution and contribution of technological progress to the South African economy: Growth accounting and Kalman filter application," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(1), pages 175-188.
    4. Dorsaf Srdid & Wafa Ghardallou, 2019. "Remittances and Disaggregated Country Risk Ratings in Tunisia: An ARDL Approach," Working Papers 1326, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    5. Harvie, Charles & Pahlavani, Mosayeb, 2006. "Sources of Economic Growth in South Korea: An Application of the ARDL Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks - 1980-2005," Economics Working Papers wp06-17, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural break; unit root tests; cointegration technique; and Iranian economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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