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Cointegration and Structural Change in the Exports-Gdp Nexus: The Case of Iran, 1960-2003

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  • Pahlavani, M.

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    Abstract

    This paper examines the major sources of economic growth in Iran using annual time series data (1960 to 2003). The time series properties of the data are analysed by Perron’s innovational outlier and additive outlier models. The empirical results based these models show that there is not enough evidence against the null hypothesis of unit root for all of the variables under investigation. Moreover, we found that the most significant structural breaks over the last four decades which have been detected endogenously in fact correspond to the regime change (e.g the 1979 Islamic revolution) and the Iraqi war in the 1980s. Finally, an ARDL methodology is employed to obtain the short and long-term determinants of economic growth. The results show that while the effects of gross capital formation and oil exports are highly significant, as expected, non-oil exports and human capital have an even smaller effect than had been anticipated.

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    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/ijaeqs243.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies .

    Volume (Year): 2 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 37-56

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    Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:2:y2005:i:4_3

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    Related research

    Keywords: structural break; unit root tests; ARDL method; and Iranian economy;

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    1. Long, N.V. & Wong, K.Y., 1996. "Endogenous Growth and International Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 96-07, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    2. Pesaran, M. H. & Smith, Ron P., 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9811, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1991. "Trade, knowledge spillovers, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(2-3), pages 517-526, April.
    5. Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    6. Dolado, Juan José & Banerjee, Anindya & Mestre, Ricardo, . "Error-correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single-equation Framework," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/3275, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
    7. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    8. Stephen Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Spurious rejections by cointegration tests induced by structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1117-1121.
    9. van den Berg, Hendrik, 1997. "The relationship between international trade and economic growth in Mexico," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21.
    10. Subrata Ghatak & Chris Milner & Utku Utkulu, 1997. "Exports, export composition and growth : cointegration and causality evidence for Malaysia," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 213-223.
    11. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1997. "The Dynamic Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier and the Demand-orientated Approach to Economic Growth: an Evaluation," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 5-26.
    12. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
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