IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000438/013522.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

La sostenibilidad de la política fiscal colombiana

Author

Listed:
  • Israel Fainboim
  • Mauricio Olivera
  • Julio César Alonso

Abstract

“La relevancia del análisis de sostenibilidad de la política fiscal para el caso colombiano no requiere amplias justificaciones. Basta decir que la mayor parte de las decisiones de política fiscal tomadas en la década de los noventa tienen efectos permanentes sobre el nivel de gasto público. El objetivo del análisis de sostenibilidad es el de determinar si existe la posibilidad de financiar el aumento de carácter permanente en el gasto público mediante los ingresos esperados por el gobierno en el mediano y largo plazo, o si se requiere de nuevos incrementos de impuestos y/o reducciones en el gasto para evitar déficits fiscales persistentes y un crecimiento sin límites de la deuda pública. El concepto de "sostenibilidad fiscal" alude en consecuencia a las restricciones de largo plazo que enfrenta la política fiscal, asociadas básicamente con la dinámica de la relación entre la deuda pública y el PIB. El propósito del análisis de sostenibilidad que se desarrolla en este artículo es el de comprobar de manera más rigurosa esta afirmación de que la política fiscal colombiana es insostenible. El artículo está dividido en tres secciones. En la primera se explican las características de las pruebas econométricas de sostenibilidad y se presentan sus resultados. En la segunda se muestran los resultados de las proyecciones de mediano plazo de las finanzas públicas colombianas. En la tercera se realizan varios ejercicios ilustrativos de los requerimientos de ajuste de las finanzas del Gobierno Central para estabilizar la relación deuda/PIB.”

Suggested Citation

  • Israel Fainboim & Mauricio Olivera & Julio César Alonso, 1997. "La sostenibilidad de la política fiscal colombiana," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013522
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/2167
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    3. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-247, July-Sept.
    4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    5. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-223, May.
    6. Fischer, Stanley & Easterly, William, 1990. "The Economic of the Government Budget Constraint," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 5(2), pages 127-142, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jaime Bonet Morón & Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Diana Ricciulli-Marín, 2018. "¿Hay pereza fiscal territorial en Colombia?," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 21(2), pages 247-307, December.
    2. Campo Robledo, Jacobo, 2011. "Sostenibilidad fiscal: una aproximación con datos panel para 8 países Latinoaméricanos [Fiscal sustainability: A data panel approach for eight Latin American countries]," MPRA Paper 33091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jaime Bonet-Morón & Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Jorge Luis Montero-Mestre, 2018. "Las finanzas públicas territoriales en Colombia: dos décadas de cambios," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 267, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Joaquín Viloria De La Hoz, 2001. "Descentralización en el Caribe colombiano: las finanzas departamentales en los noventas," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 2283, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alonso, Julio César & Olivera, Mauricio & Fainboim Yaker, Israel, 1998. "La sostenibilidad de la política fiscal en América Latina: El caso de Colombia," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6106, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2002. "Fiscal policy in Sweden: effects of EMU criteria convergence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 121-136, January.
    3. Francisco de Castro & José M. González-Páramo & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2001. "Evaluating the dynamics of fiscal policy in Spain: patterns of interdependence and consistency of public expenditure and revenues," Working Papers 0103, Banco de España.
    4. Philip Bodman, 1997. "The Australian Trade Balance and Current Account: a Time Series Perspective," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 39-57.
    5. Campo Robledo, Jacobo, 2011. "Sostenibilidad fiscal: una aproximación con datos panel para 8 países Latinoaméricanos [Fiscal sustainability: A data panel approach for eight Latin American countries]," MPRA Paper 33091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Wu, Jyh-lin, 1998. "Are budget deficits "too large"?: The evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 519-528.
    7. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2013. "Global imbalances and the intertemporal external budget constraint: A multicointegration approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5357-5372.
    8. António Afonso & João Jalles, 2014. "A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 821-847, November.
    9. Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2013. "Asymmetries in the revenue–expenditure nexus: A tale of three countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 52-60.
    10. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L. A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2004. "Is the US fiscal deficit sustainable?: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 501-526.
    11. Tarlok Singh, 2017. "Are Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries Sustainable? Robust Evidence from Time-Series Estimators," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-64, January.
    12. Theo Panagiotidis & Mark J Holmes, 2005. "Sustainability and Asymmetric Adjustment: Some New Evidence Concerning Behaviour of the US Current Account," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    13. Makrydakis, Stelios & Tzavalis, Elias & Balfoussias, Athanassios, 1998. "Policy regime changes and the long-run sustainability of fiscal policy: an application to Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 71-86, January.
    14. Salem KANOUN, 2014. "The Sustainability of Fiscal Adjustment Process : A Quantitative Approach With an Application to Tunisia," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(10), pages 1314-1331, October.
    15. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2010. "On the Sustainability of Government Deficits: Some Long-Term Evidence for Spain, 1850–2000," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 263-281, November.
    16. Roberto Pasten & James P. Cover, 2010. "The Political Economy of Unsustainable Fiscal Deficits," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 47(136), pages 169-189.
    17. Carlos Vieira, 2004. "Unsustainable Fiscal Policies in the EU, A Legacy of the 1970s?," Economics Working Papers 1_2004, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    18. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/29, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    19. Juncal Cunado & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2008. "New Evidence on US Current Account Sustainability," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, April.
    20. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-44, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Política Fiscal; Modelos Econométricos; Deuda Pública; Gasto Público; Ingresos Fiscales; Sector Público; Proyecciones Económicas; Finanzas Públicas; Análisis Econométrico; Crecimiento Económico; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000438:013522. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Patricia Monroy (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fedesco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.