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The Anticipation Of The Number Of Tourists Arrived In Mamaia Using The Type Of Models Arima

Author

Listed:
  • Kamer Ainur M. AIVAZ

    (Ovidius University of Constanta)

  • Ion Danut I. JUGANARU

    (Ovidius University of Constanta)

  • Mariana C. JUGANARU

    (Ovidius University of Constanta)

Abstract

The Mamaia station is, at the moment, the biggest and the most looked for touristic station from the Romanian seaside of the Black Sea. From the analysis of the evolution of the main indicators of touristic circulation from the last 10 years (2006-2015), we can notice a significant increase, but we are also interested in knowing the tendency of their modification in the near future. For this reason, in the present study, we wanted to test the contribution of the models ARIMA to the elaboration of an anticipation regarding the indicators: arrivals of tourists, totally and structurally: Romanians and foreigners, for Mamaia station. We consider that the results obtained in this study may contribute to the defining of the strategy of development of the station and ensuring the necessary conditions for hosting a significant greater number of tourists, in the following years.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamer Ainur M. AIVAZ & Ion Danut I. JUGANARU & Mariana C. JUGANARU, 2016. "The Anticipation Of The Number Of Tourists Arrived In Mamaia Using The Type Of Models Arima," Network Intelligence Studies, Romanian Foundation for Business Intelligence, Editorial Department, issue 7, pages 93-108, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cmj:networ:y:2016:i:7:p:93-108
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourists arrivals; Auto regressive models; Prevision;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • Z33 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Marketing and Finance

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