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Funktioniert der ifo Konjunkturtest auch in wirtschaftlichen Krisenzeiten? : eine Analyse der Zusammenhänge zwischen ifo Geschäftsklima und amtlichen Konjunkturdaten für Sachsen

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Lehmann
  • Wolf-Dietmar Speich
  • Roman Straube
  • Gerit Vogt

Abstract

Um das zyklische Wirtschaftsgeschehen adäquat analysieren und prognostizieren zu können, bedient man sich häufig der Informationen von Konjunkturindikatoren. Dabei sind solche Größen von besonderem Interesse, die einen gewissen Vorlauf gegenüber der allgemeinen Wirtschaftsentwicklung besitzen (Frühindikatoren). Einer der am meisten beachteten Indikatoren zur Analyse der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in Deutschland ist der ifo Geschäftsklimaindex. Er wird aus einer monatlich vorgenommenen Unternehmensbefragung des ifo Instituts, dem ifo Konjunkturtest, ermittelt. In diesem Beitrag wird anhand der ifo Geschäftsklimaindizes für das verarbeitende Gewerbe und den Maschinenbau Sachsens analysiert, ob sich der ifo Konjunkturtest auch in dem von der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise 2008/2009 geprägten Zeitraum als ein verlässliches Analyseinstrument erwies. Zudem wird überprüft, inwiefern die genannten Indikatoren eine Vorlaufeigenschaft zu den Konjunkturdaten der amtlichen Statistik besitzen.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Lehmann & Wolf-Dietmar Speich & Roman Straube & Gerit Vogt, 2010. "Funktioniert der ifo Konjunkturtest auch in wirtschaftlichen Krisenzeiten? : eine Analyse der Zusammenhänge zwischen ifo Geschäftsklima und amtlichen Konjunkturdaten für Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(03), pages .8-14, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:17:y:2010:i:03:p:s.8-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "The Ifo Business Climate: A reliable leading indicator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(05), pages 25-30, March.
    2. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "The Ifo Business Climate and turning points of the German business cycle," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(03), pages 26-31, February.
    3. Stefan Arent & Beate Schirwitz & Gerit Vogt, 2010. "Konjunkturprognose Ostdeutschland und Sachsen 2009/2010 : Wirtschaft erholt sich langsam von der Rezession," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(01), pages .13-22, February.
    4. Stefan Arent & Beate Schirwitz & Gerit Vogt, 2010. "Konjunkturprognose Ostdeutschland und Sachsen 2009/2010 : Wirtschaft erholt sich langsam von der Rezession," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(01), pages 13-22, 02.
    5. Joachim Ragnitz & Beate Schirwitz & Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose Ostdeutschland und Sachsen 2008/2009 : Abschwung und Rezession," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(01), pages 3-11, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65.
    2. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.

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    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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