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Funktioniert der ifo Konjunkturtest auch in wirtschaftlichen Krisenzeiten? : eine Analyse der Zusammenhänge zwischen ifo Geschäftsklima und amtlichen Konjunkturdaten für Sachsen

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Author Info

  • Robert Lehmann

    ()

  • Wolf-Dietmar Speich
  • Roman Straube
  • Gerit Vogt

Abstract

Um das zyklische Wirtschaftsgeschehen adäquat analysieren und prognostizieren zu können, bedient man sich häufig der Informationen von Konjunkturindikatoren. Dabei sind solche Größen von besonderem Interesse, die einen gewissen Vorlauf gegenüber der allgemeinen Wirtschaftsentwicklung besitzen (Frühindikatoren). Einer der am meisten beachteten Indikatoren zur Analyse der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in Deutschland ist der ifo Geschäftsklimaindex. Er wird aus einer monatlich vorgenommenen Unternehmensbefragung des ifo Instituts, dem ifo Konjunkturtest, ermittelt. In diesem Beitrag wird anhand der ifo Geschäftsklimaindizes für das verarbeitende Gewerbe und den Maschinenbau Sachsens analysiert, ob sich der ifo Konjunkturtest auch in dem von der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise 2008/2009 geprägten Zeitraum als ein verlässliches Analyseinstrument erwies. Zudem wird überprüft, inwiefern die genannten Indikatoren eine Vorlaufeigenschaft zu den Konjunkturdaten der amtlichen Statistik besitzen.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

Volume (Year): 17 (2010)
Issue (Month): 03 (06)
Pages: 8-14

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:17:y:2010:i:03:p:8-14

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Related research

Keywords: Wirtschaftskrise; Konjunkturumfrage; Geschäftsklima; Sachsen;

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References

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  1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und Wendepunkte der deutschen Konjunktur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(03), pages 26-31, 02.
  2. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima: Ein zuverlässiger Frühindikator," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(05), pages 25-30, 03.
  3. Stefan Arent & Beate Schirwitz & Gerit Vogt, 2010. "Konjunkturprognose Ostdeutschland und Sachsen 2009/2010 : Wirtschaft erholt sich langsam von der Rezession," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(01), pages 13-22, 02.
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Cited by:
  1. Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2013. "Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors," Discussion Papers in Economics 17104, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  2. Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2013. "Sectoral gross value-added forecasts at the regional level: Is there any information gain?," MPRA Paper 46765, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Wenzel, Lars, 2013. "Forecasting regional growth in Germany: A panel approach using business survey data," HWWI Research Papers 133, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  4. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014. "Forecasting gross value-added at the regional level: are sectoral disaggregated predictions superior to direct ones?," Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 61-90, February.
  5. Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und die deutsche Konjunktur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.
  6. Robert Lehmann, 2011. "Auswirkungen der Umstellung auf die neue Wirtschaftszweigklassifikation für die Regionalauswertung des ifo Konjunkturtests," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 18(05), pages 28-31, October.

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