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Indikatoren für die globale Konjunktur

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Author Info

  • Klaus Abberger
  • Maximilian Frey
  • Michaela Kesina
  • Anna Stangl

Abstract

Neben Konjunkturindikatoren für einzelne Länder spielen auch Konjunkturindikatoren für länderübergreifende Regionen und Instrumente für die Beobachtung der globalen Konjunktur eine wichtige Rolle. Der vorliegende Artikel stellt die Instrumente und die wichtigsten Indikatoren für eine Konjunkturbeobachtung auf globaler Ebene vor und vergleicht ihre jeweiligen Eigenschaften. Die durchgeführten Berechnungen zeigen, dass ein Monitoringsystem für die globale Konjunktur aus vier Zeitreihen bestehen sollte: dem Composite Leading Indicator, dem Business Confidence Indicator und der internationalen Industrieproduktion, alle drei veröffentlicht durch die OECD, sowie dem durch das ifo Institut veröffentlichten ifo Weltwirtschaftsklima. Mit Hilfe dieser vier Zeitreihen lässt sich die Entwicklung im globalen Konjunkturzyklus abschätzen.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Schnelldienst/zs-sd-2009/ifosd_2009_16_3.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 62 (2009)
Issue (Month): 16 (08)
Pages: 32-41

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:16:p:32-41

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Related research

Keywords: Konjunkturindikator; Geschäftsklima; Konjunktur; Weltwirtschaftsklima; Unternehmen; Deutschland; Welt;

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References

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  1. Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2002. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher & Prasad, Eswar, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," IZA Discussion Papers 3442, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Gerlach, H M Stefan, 1988. "World Business Cycles under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 621-32, November.
  4. Dellas, Harris, 1986. "A real model of the world business cycle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 381-394, September.
  5. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und Wendepunkte der deutschen Konjunktur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(03), pages 26-31, 02.
  6. Steve Ambler & Emanuela Cardia & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "International Business Cycles: What are the Facts?," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 90, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  7. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Global Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 08/143, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Evgenia Kudymowa & Johanna Plenk & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014. "Ifo World Economic Survey and the Business Cycle in Selected Countries," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(4), pages 51-57, 01.
  2. Evgenia Kudymowa & Johanna Plenk & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Ifo World Economic Survey und die realwirtschaftliche Entwicklung in ausgewählten Ländern," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(19), pages 23-30, October.

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