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My Experiences with Nonlinear Dynamic Models in Economics

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  • Zellner Arnold

    (Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago)

Abstract

First, the goals and process of model building, including models for learning from data, explaining the past, predicting as yet unobserved data and making policy decisions are discussed. Then attention is given to the important role of nonlinear, dynamic relations in three of my past and one of my current projects: (1) Evaluation of the world's most famous marine conservation program, (2) Assessing effects on regional growth of proposed dam construction on the Susquehanna River, (3) Consideration of the Federal Reserve-MIT-PENN model of the U.S. economy and (4) Construction and use of the new Marshallian Macroeconomic Model. Last, current work to complete the nonlinear, dynamic Marshallian Macroeconomic Model of an economy is described.

Suggested Citation

  • Zellner Arnold, 2002. "My Experiences with Nonlinear Dynamic Models in Economics," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-18, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:6:y:2002:i:2:n:1
    DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1004
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zellner, Arnold & Chen, Bin, 2001. "Bayesian Modeling Of Economies And Data Requirements," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(5), pages 673-700, November.
    2. Palm, Franz, 1976. "Testing the dynamic specification of an econometric model with an application to Belgian data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 269-289, October.
    3. Arnold Zellner, 1997. "Bayesian Analysis in Econometrics and Statistics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 825.
    4. Veloce, William & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Entry and empirical demand and supply analysis for competitive industries," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 459-471.
    5. Peck, Stephen C. & Bosch, Deborah K. & Weyant, John P., 1988. "Industrial energy demand : A simple structural approach," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 111-133, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ford, Andrew & Vogstad, Klaus & Flynn, Hilary, 2007. "Simulating price patterns for tradable green certificates to promote electricity generation from wind," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 91-111, January.
    2. Burak Güneralp & Michael K Reilly & Karen C Seto, 2012. "Capturing Multiscalar Feedbacks in Urban Land Change: A Coupled System Dynamics Spatial Logistic Approach," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 39(5), pages 858-879, October.
    3. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2004. "Structural Change and Forecasting Long-Run Energy Prices," Staff Working Papers 04-5, Bank of Canada.
    4. Ford, Andrew, 2005. "Simulating the impacts of a strategic fuels reserve in California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 483-498, March.
    5. Prasolov, Alexander V., 2018. "On the simultaneous estimation of delay model parameters in economic dynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 1102-1109.

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