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The Fiscal Cost of Financial Instability

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  • Chiarella Carl

    ()
    (University of Technology, Sydney)

  • Di Guilmi Corrado

    ()
    (University of Technology, Sydney)

Abstract

This paper presents an agent based model that investigates the possible outcomes of different fiscal and regulatory policies in a financially fragile economy. We analyse the consequences of the attempt by the government to counteract a downturn when it ignores the debt dynamics as modelled by Fisher and Minsky. In particular, we formulate an educated guess about the burden that the government and the taxpayer must bear when a bubble bursts, and its relationship with the extent of government intervention and the taxation system. We also evaluate the outcomes of possible alternatives or complementary regulatory policies. We model four different scenarios treating separately a tax on profits and a tax on private wealth and, for both of them, we specify two cases depending on whether the financial system is able to autonomously generate liquidity. Therefore, we can assess the effect of endogenous money and endogenous credit on the different stabilization policies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 1-29

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:16:y:2012:i:4:n:3

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  1. Eric Nasica & Alain Raybaut, 2005. "Profits, confidence, and public deficits: modeling Minsky's institutional dynamics," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 136-154, November.
  2. Oren Sussman & Javier Suarez, 2004. "Financial Distress, Bankruptcy Law and the Business Cycle," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-FE-07, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
  4. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 238-71, February.
  5. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  6. Asada, Toichiro & Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter & Mouakil, Tarik & Proaño, Christian R., 2010. "Stabilizing an unstable economy: On the choice of proper policy measures," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 4(21), pages 1-43.
  7. Foley, Duncan K, 1975. "On Two Specifications of Asset Equilibrium in Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 303-24, April.
  8. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  9. Carl Chiarella & Corrado Di Guilmi, 2010. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis:a Stochastic Microfoundation Framework," Research Paper Series 273, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  10. Francisco Covas & Wouter J. Den Haan, 2011. "The Cyclical Behavior of Debt and Equity Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 877-99, April.
  11. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2000. "Methods of Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262201232, December.
  12. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Carl Chiarella & Corrado Di Guilmi, 2013. "Monetary Policy and Debt Deflation: Some Computational Experiments," Working Paper Series 10, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.

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