Regional output spillovers in China: Estimates from a VAR model
AbstractInter-regional spillover effects are central to China's growth policy; yet relatively little is known about the strength and duration of these spillovers and whether their characteristics have changed over time. This article examines the spillover of output between the three commonly considered regions of China: coastal, central and western regions. We find that there are strong spillovers from the coastal region to both other regions, from the central region to the western region, but that shocks to the western region have no flow-on effect on the other two regions. Thus, a policy of developing the coastal region is likely to indirectly benefit the other two regions. Our results suggest surprisingly little change in the pattern of spillovers over the period 1953-2003, although parameter instability in the beginning of the period limits the extent of possible analysis of this issue. Copyright (c) 2007 the author(s). Journal compilation (c) 2007 RSAI.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Papers in Regional Science.
Volume (Year): 86 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (03)
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Other versions of this item:
- Nicolaas Groenewold & Guoping Lee & Anping Chen, 2005. "Regional Output Spillovers in China: Estimates from a VAR Model," Economics Discussion / Working Papers, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics 05-05, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
- R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
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