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Has Weak Lending and Activity in the UK been Driven by Credit Supply Shocks?

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  • Alina Barnett
  • Ryland Thomas

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of credit supply shocks in driving the weakness in UK banks’ lending and economic activity during the various UK financial crises since 1966. It uses a structural VAR analysis to identify credit supply shocks separately from standard macroeconomic shocks. It finds that credit supply shocks can account for most of the weakness in bank lending since the onset of the recent financial crisis and 1/3 – 1/2 of the fall in GDP relative to its historic trend. It also finds that credit supply shocks behave more like aggregate supply shocks than aggregate demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Alina Barnett & Ryland Thomas, 2014. "Has Weak Lending and Activity in the UK been Driven by Credit Supply Shocks?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(S1), pages 60-89, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:82:y:2014:i:s1:p:60-89
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/manc.12071
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Olli Palm'en, 2020. "Inflation Dynamics of Financial Shocks," Papers 2006.03301, arXiv.org.
    3. Tölö, Eero & Miettinen, Paavo, 2018. "How do shocks to bank capital affect lending and growth?," Research Discussion Papers 25/2018, Bank of Finland.
    4. Balke, Nathan S. & Zeng, Zheng & Zhang, Ren, 2021. "Identifying credit demand, financial intermediation, and supply of funds shocks: A structural VAR approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    5. Chirinos-Leañez, Ana María & Pagliacci, Carolina, 2017. "Credit Supply in Venezuela: A Non-Conventional Bank Lending Channel?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8256, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Meeks, Roland, 2017. "Capital regulation and the macroeconomy: Empirical evidence and macroprudential policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 125-141.
    7. Spatareanu, Mariana & Manole, Vlad & Kabiri, Ali, 2019. "Do bank liquidity shocks hamper firms’ innovation?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 116931, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Noss, Joseph & Toffano, Priscilla, 2016. "Estimating the impact of changes in aggregate bank capital requirements on lending and growth during an upswing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 15-27.
    9. Rilind Kabashi & Katerina Suleva, 2016. "Loan Supply Shocks in Macedonia: A Bayesian SVAR Approach with Sign Restrictions," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 18(1), pages 5-33, June.
    10. Alexandra Born & Zeno Enders, 2019. "Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2691-2721.
    11. Bratsiotis, George J. & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2022. "Precautionary liquidity shocks, excess reserves and business cycles," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Barauskaitė, Kristina & Nguyen, Anh D.M. & Rousová, Linda & Cappiello, Lorenzo, 2022. "The impact of credit supply shocks in the euro area: market-based financing versus loans," Working Paper Series 2673, European Central Bank.
    13. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_025 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Palmén, Olli, 2020. "Sovereign default risk and credit supply: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    15. Büyükbaşaran, Tayyar & Karasoy-Can, Gökçe & Küçük, Hande, 2022. "Macroeconomic effects of bank lending in an emerging economy: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    16. Spatareanu, Mariana & Manole, Vlad & Kabiri, Ali, 2019. "Do bank liquidity shocks hamper firms’ innovation?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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