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The Frequency of Financial Analysts' Forecast Revisions: Theory and Evidence about Determinants of Demand for Predisclosure Information

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  • Craig W. Holden
  • Pamela S. Stuerke

Abstract

A fundamental property of a financial market is its degree of price informativeness. A major determinant of price informativeness is predisclosure information collected by financial analysts and then privately disseminated to clients, who make the recommended trades. We develop a dynamic model of the analyst's optimal strategy of forecast revision frequency with endogenous analysts and endogenous traders. We then empirically test the model's predictions. We find that forecast revision frequency is positively associated with earnings variability, trading volume, and earnings response coefficients, and negatively associated with skewness of trading volume. Thus, we find strong empirical support for our dynamic model.

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  • Craig W. Holden & Pamela S. Stuerke, 2008. "The Frequency of Financial Analysts' Forecast Revisions: Theory and Evidence about Determinants of Demand for Predisclosure Information," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7‐8), pages 860-888, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:35:y:2008:i:7-8:p:860-888
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5957.2008.02108.x
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    2. Po‐Chang Chen & Ganapathi S. Narayanamoorthy & Theodore Sougiannis & Hui Zhou, 2020. "Analyst underreaction and the post‐forecast revision drift," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(9-10), pages 1151-1181, October.
    3. James S. Doran & Andy Fodor & Kevin Krieger, 2010. "Option Market Efficiency and Analyst Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5‐6), pages 560-590, June.
    4. Christensen, Theodore E. & Heninger, William G. & Stice, Earl K., 2013. "Factors associated with price reactions and analysts’ forecast revisions around SEC filings," Research in Accounting Regulation, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 133-148.
    5. Lenkey, Stephen L., 2017. "Insider trading and the short-swing profit rule," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 517-545.

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