IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecinqu/v60y2022i3p1258-1276.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How structural is unemployment in the United States?

Author

Listed:
  • Yuelin Liu

Abstract

Aggregate matching efficiency (AME) is constructed and endogenized for assessing driving forces behind U.S. unemployment fluctuations. Working with AME sidesteps the problematic orthogonal assumptions on sources of mismatch in the previous studies. Matching efficiency and labor supply shocks, which capture potential variations in structural factors, are identified in a time‐varying structural vector autoregression. Empirical results suggest that the bulk of U.S. unemployment fluctuations is cyclical rather than structural. Meanwhile, the contribution of aggregate shocks to unemployment is substantially time‐varying. In particular, the surge of unemployment rate during the Great Recession is mainly resulting from a shortfall in aggregate demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuelin Liu, 2022. "How structural is unemployment in the United States?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1258-1276, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:60:y:2022:i:3:p:1258-1276
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13062
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13062
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecin.13062?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
    2. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Hobijn, Bart & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2015. "On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 64-82.
    3. Alessandro Gavazza & Simon Mongey & Giovanni L. Violante, 2018. "Aggregate Recruiting Intensity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2088-2127, August.
    4. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
    5. Benedikt Herz & Thijs van Rens, 2020. "Accounting for Mismatch Unemployment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1619-1654.
    6. Toshihiko Mukoyama & Christina Patterson & Ayşegül Şahin, 2018. "Job Search Behavior over the Business Cycle," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 190-215, January.
    7. Abraham, Katharine G & Katz, Lawrence F, 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 507-522, June.
    8. Gadi Barlevy, 2011. "Evaluating the role of labor market mismatch in rising unemployment," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 35(Q III), pages 82-96.
    9. Regis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2015. "Labor Market Heterogeneity and the Aggregate Matching Function," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 222-249, October.
    10. Davis, Steven J., 1987. "Fluctuations in the pace of labor reallocation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 335-402, January.
    11. Valletta, Robert G., 2013. "House lock and structural unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 86-97.
    12. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-793, August.
    13. Christopher A. Pissarides & Barbara Petrongolo, 2001. "Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 390-431, June.
    14. Ay?egül ?ahin & Joseph Song & Giorgio Topa & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "Mismatch Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3529-3564, November.
    15. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2014. "Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 3-49, October.
    16. Gomme, Paul & Lkhagvasuren, Damba, 2015. "Worker search effort as an amplification mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 106-122.
    17. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2013. "The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 581-622.
    18. Regis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2016. "Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 449-494.
    19. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
    20. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    21. Marco Del Negro & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: A Corrigendum," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1342-1345.
    22. repec:eee:labchp:v:1:y:1986:i:c:p:3-102 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Margaret Stevens, 2007. "New Microfoundations For The Aggregate Matching Function," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(3), pages 847-868, August.
    24. Regis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2018. "On the Demographic Adjustment of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 219-231, May.
    25. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
    26. Sedláček, Petr, 2014. "Match efficiency and firms' hiring standards," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 123-133.
    27. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    28. Jacobs,Donald P. & Kalai,Ehud & Kamien,Morton I. & Schwartz,Nancy L. (ed.), 1998. "Frontiers of Research in Economic Theory," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521635387.
    29. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    30. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Fernando Rios-Avila, 2013. "Identifying Factors behind the Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(1), pages 257-275, June.
    31. repec:eee:labchp:v:1:y:1986:i:c:p:103-204 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian, 2022. "Business cycle asymmetries and the labor market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolas Groshenny, 2016. "Mismatch Shocks and Unemployment During the Great Recession," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1197-1214, November.
    3. Pizzinelli, Carlo & Speigner, Bradley, 2017. "Matching efficiency and labour market heterogeneity in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 667, Bank of England.
    4. Regis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2015. "Labor Market Heterogeneity and the Aggregate Matching Function," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 222-249, October.
    5. Benedikt Herz & Thijs van Rens, 2020. "Accounting for Mismatch Unemployment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1619-1654.
    6. Fatih Karahan & Kurt Mitman & Brendan Moore, 2019. "Micro and Macro Effects of UI Policies: Evidence from Missouri," Staff Reports 905, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Have Standard VARS Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 931-951, August.
    8. Karahan, Fatih & Mitman, Kurt & Moore, Brendan, 2019. "Individual and Market-Level Effects of UI Policies: Evidence from Missouri," IZA Discussion Papers 12805, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Wolcott, Erin L., 2021. "Employment inequality: Why do the low-skilled work less now?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 161-177.
    10. Domenico Ferraro, 2018. "The Asymmetric Cyclical Behavior of the U.S. Labor Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 145-162, October.
    11. Petr Sedlacek, 2016. "The aggregate matching function and job search from employment and out of the labor force," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 16-28, July.
    12. Andreas Hornstein & Marianna Kudlyak, 2015. "Estimating Matching Efficiency with Variable Search Effort," Working Paper Series 2016-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Michael W. L. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & David Ratner, 2015. "The Beveridge Curve: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 571-630, September.
    14. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    15. Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "The global component of inflation volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 700-721, June.
    16. Lange, Fabian & Papageorgiou, Theodore, 2020. "Beyond Cobb-Douglas: Flexibly Estimating Matching Functions with Unobserved Matching Efficiency," IZA Discussion Papers 13177, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Marta Banbura & Andries van Vlodrop, 2018. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-025/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolas Groshenny, 2012. "Matching efficiency and business cycle fluctuations," Working Paper 2012/07, Norges Bank.
    19. Hartwig, Benny, 2020. "Robust inference intime-varying structural VAR models: The DC-Cholesky multivariate stochasticvolatility model," Discussion Papers 34/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Lisauskaite, Elena, 2022. "Matching Efficiency and Heterogeneous Workers in the UK," IZA Discussion Papers 15610, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:60:y:2022:i:3:p:1258-1276. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/weaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.