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Effectiveness of Capital Controls and Sterilizations in China

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  • Yongzhong Wang

Abstract

Since 2003, China has been facing a trilemma of determining how to maintain independent monetary policy and limit exchange rate flexibility simultaneously, while facing persistent and substantial international capital flows. The present paper is an empirical evaluation of the effectiveness of China's sterilizations and capital mobility regulations, measured by sterilization and offset coefficients, respectively, using monthly data between mid‐1999 and March 2009. We find that the effectiveness of China's sterilizations is almost perfect in terms of the monetary base, but not in terms of M2, and that China's capital controls still work but are not quite effective. Recursive estimation reveals that increasing mobility of capital flows and decreasing effectiveness of sterilizations might undercut China's ability to maintain monetary autonomy and domestic currency stability simultaneously. To solve the trilemma smoothly, China's monetary authority should continue to relax the management of the exchange rate, and take further steps towards deregulation of capital outflows.

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  • Yongzhong Wang, 2010. "Effectiveness of Capital Controls and Sterilizations in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(3), pages 106-124, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:18:y:2010:i:3:p:106-124
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-124X.2010.01199.x
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    2. John Knight & Wei Wang, 2011. "China’s Macroeconomic Imbalances: Causes and Consequences," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9), pages 1476-1506, September.
    3. Dai, Meixing, 2011. "Motivations and strategies for a real revaluation of the Yuan," MPRA Paper 30440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Meixing Dai, 2013. "In search of an optimal strategy for yuan’s real revaluation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 29-46, February.
    5. John Knight & Wei Wang, 2011. "China’s Macroeconomic Imbalances: Causes and Consequences," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9), pages 1476-1506, September.
    6. Löchel, H. & Packham, N. & Walisch, F., 2016. "Determinants of the onshore and offshore Chinese government yield curves," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 77-93.
    7. Zhuo Tan & Shenggang Yang, 2012. "Neutralization in China: evidence from the balance sheet of the People’s Bank of China," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 25-31, March.
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    9. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2015. "Bank excess reserves in emerging economies: A critical review and research agenda," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 158-166.
    10. Liu, Lin & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Jiang, Chun, 2013. "Real interest rate parity in East Asian countries based on China with flexible Fourier stationary test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 52-58.
    11. Jamel Boukhatem & Zied Ftiti & Jean Michel Sahut, 2021. "Bond market and macroeconomic stability in East Asia: a nonlinear causality analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 53-76, February.
    12. Liu, Yan & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei, 2013. "Do real interest rates converge across East Asian countries based on China?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 467-473.
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    14. G. Andrew Karolyi & David T. Ng & Eswar S. Prasad, 2013. "The Coming Wave," Working Papers 082013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    15. Loechel, Horst & Packham, Natalie & Walisch, Fabian, 2013. "Determinants of the onshore and offshore Chinese Government yield curves," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 202, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    16. Su, Chi-Wei & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Chang, Tsangyao & Yin, Kedong, 2014. "Monetary convergence in East Asian countries relative to China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 228-237.

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