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Model Structure and the Combined Welfare and Trade Effects of China's Trade Related Policies

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  • Wang Yongzhong

    (Institute of World Economics and Politics)

Abstract

In recent years, China has faced an increasing trilemmahow to maintain independent monetary policy and limit exchange rate flexibility simultaneously, while at the same time facing persistent and substantial international capital flows. This paper undertakes an empirical investigation to evaluate the effectiveness of Chinas sterilizations and capital mobility regulations, measured by the sterilization and offset coefficients respectively, using monthly data between mid 1999 and March 2009. We find that the effectiveness of Chinas sterilization is almost perfect in terms of the monetary base, while it is nearly half in light of M2, and the extent of Chinas capital mobility regulations still works but not well binds. Recursive estimation finds evidence of increasing mobility of capital flows and decreasing extent of sterilizations that may undercut Chinas ability to seek monetary autonomy and domestic currency stability simultaneously.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang Yongzhong, 2010. "Model Structure and the Combined Welfare and Trade Effects of China's Trade Related Policies," Trade Working Papers 23038, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:eab:tradew:23038
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mitsuhiro Fukao, 1990. "Liberalization of Japan's Foreign Exchange Controls and Structural Changes in the Balance of Payments," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 8(2), pages 101-165, September.
    2. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Willett, Thomas D., 2010. "China as a reserve sink: The evidence from offset and sterilization coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 951-972, September.
    3. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2009. "Sterilization, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Integration," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 777-801, September.
    4. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2009. "Navigating the trilemma: Capital flows and monetary policy in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 205-224, May.
    5. Dong He & Carmen Chu & Chang Shu & Amy Wong, 2005. "Monetary Management in Mainland China in the Face of Large Capital Inflows," Working Papers 0507, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Effectiveness; Capital Mobility; International Reserves; Sterilization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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