IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/canjag/v68y2020i2p245-250.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Potential impacts of COVID‐19 on Canadian farmland markets

Author

Listed:
  • Chad Lawley

Abstract

Evidence from the past 50 years suggests that changes in Canadian farmland values are influenced by farming returns, real interest rates, and exchange rates. Residential and commercial development also affects the value of farmland close to major urban centers. The COVID‐19 economic shutdown is expected to reduce crop and livestock returns, which will put downward pressure on farmland values. The magnitude of this downward pressure will depend on the extent and the length of the recession. The evolution of interest rates over the next months and years could have a significant impact on farmland values. Historically, low real interest rates have coincided with higher farmland values, whereas high real interest rates have caused significant reductions in farmland values. The development value of farmland close to major cities could be negatively impacted by a sharp downturn in residential and commercial property markets. Les données des 50 dernières années suggèrent que les changements dans la valeur des terres agricoles canadiennes sont influencés par les rendements agricoles, les taux d'intérêt réels et les taux de change. Le développement résidentiel et commercial affecte également la valeur des terres agricoles à proximité des grands centers urbains. La fermeture économique due à la COVID‐19 devrait réduire les rendements des cultures et du bétail, ce qui exercera une pression à la baisse sur la valeur des terres agricoles. L'ampleur de cette pression à la baisse dépendra de l'étendue et de la durée de la récession. L'évolution des taux d'intérêt au cours des prochains mois et années pourrait avoir un impact significatif sur la valeur des terres agricoles. Historiquement, de faibles taux d'intérêt réels ont coïncidé avec des valeurs de terres agricoles plus élevées, tandis que des taux d'intérêt réels élevés ont entraîné des réductions importantes de la valeur des terres agricoles. La valeur de développement des terres agricoles à proximité des grandes villes pourrait être affectée négativement par une forte baisse des marchés immobiliers résidentiels et commerciaux.

Suggested Citation

  • Chad Lawley, 2020. "Potential impacts of COVID‐19 on Canadian farmland markets," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 68(2), pages 245-250, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:68:y:2020:i:2:p:245-250
    DOI: 10.1111/cjag.12242
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/cjag.12242
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/cjag.12242?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    2. Richard E. Just & John A. Miranowski, 1993. "Understanding Farmland Price Changes," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 156-168.
    3. Colin A. Carter & Richard S. Gray & W. H. Furtan, 1990. "Exchange Rate Effects on Inputs and Outputs in Canadian Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(3), pages 738-743.
    4. Andrew Schmitz, 1995. "Boom/Bust Cycles and Ricardian Rent," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(5), pages 1110-1125.
    5. Alfons Weersink & Steve Clark & Calum G. Turvey & Rakhal Sarker, 1999. "The Effect of Agricultural Policy on Farmland Values," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 75(3), pages 425-439.
    6. Maoyong Fan & Anita Alves Pena & Jeffrey M. Perloff, 2016. "Effects of the Great Recession on the U.S. Agricultural Labor Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1146-1157.
    7. Kisan Gunjal & Sarah Williams & Robert Romain, 1996. "Agricultural Credit Subsidies and Farmland Values in Canada," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 44(1), pages 39-52, March.
    8. B. James Deaton & Richard J. Vyn, 2015. "The Effect of Ontario's Greenbelt on the Price of Vacant Farmland," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 63(2), pages 185-208, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu, 2023. "The Covid-19 Pandemic and the New Poor in Africa: The Straw That Broke the Camel’s Back," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 143-154, April.
    2. Alan P. Ker, 2020. "Risk management in Canada's agricultural sector in light of COVID‐19," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 68(2), pages 251-258, June.
    3. Ezeaku, Hillary & Asongu, Simplice & Nnanna, Joseph, 2020. "Volatility of International Commodity Prices in Times of Covid-19: Effects of Oil Supply and Global Demand Shocks," MPRA Paper 107544, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Alan P. Ker & Ryan Cardwell, 2020. "Introduction to the special issue on COVID‐19 and the Canadian agriculture and food sectors: Thoughts from the pandemic onset," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 68(2), pages 139-142, June.
    5. Chad Lawley, 2021. "COVID‐19 and Canadian farmland markets in 2020," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 291-298, June.
    6. Tomas Baležentis & Mangirdas Morkūnas & Agnė Žičkienė & Artiom Volkov & Erika Ribašauskienė & Dalia Štreimikienė, 2021. "Policies for Rapid Mitigation of the Crisis’ Effects on Agricultural Supply Chains: A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System with Monte Carlo Simulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-31, October.
    7. Margarida Rodrigues & Mário Franco & Rui Silva, 2020. "COVID-19 and Disruption in Management and Education Academics: Bibliometric Mapping and Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-25, September.
    8. Ezeaku, Hillary & Asongu, Simplice, 2020. "Covid-19 and Cacophony of coughing: Did International commodity Prices catch influenza?," MPRA Paper 107094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Yanqi Han & Hui Lyu & Shixiong Cheng & Yuhang He, 2022. "Influencing Mechanism and Difference of Poultry Farmers’ Willingness and Behavior in Breeding Scale—Evidence from Jianghan Plain, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-15, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. B. James Deaton & Chad Lawley, 2022. "A survey of literature examining farmland prices: A Canadian focus," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 70(2), pages 95-121, June.
    2. Laure Latruffe & Chantal Le Mouël, 2009. "Capitalization Of Government Support In Agricultural Land Prices: What Do We Know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 659-691, September.
    3. Richard J Vyn & James Rude, 2020. "The Influence of Supply Management on Farmland Values in Ontario," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(4), pages 815-834, December.
    4. Lautrup, M. & Panduro, T.E. & Olsen, J.V. & Pedersen, M.F. & Jacobsen, J.B., 2023. "Is there more to trees than timber? Estimating the private amenity value of forests using a hedonic land model for combined agricultural properties," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Carlberg, Jared G., 2002. "Effects Of Ownership Restrictions On Farmland Values In Saskatchewan," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 1-10, August.
    6. Albulena Basha & Wendong Zhang & Chad Hart, 2021. "The impacts of interest rate changes on US Midwest farmland values," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 81(5), pages 746-766, February.
    7. Callahan, Scott & Ifft, Jennifer & Michaud, Clayton P., 2022. "The impact of countercyclical farm programs on agricultural land values," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322579, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Ifft, Jennifer & Wu, Shang & Kuethe, Todd, 2014. "The Impact of Pasture Insurance on Farmland Values," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 390-405, December.
    9. Serra, Teresa & Goodwin, Barry K. & Featherstone, Allen M., 2011. "Risk behavior in the presence of government programs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 18-24, May.
    10. Pavel Ciaian & d’Artis Kancs & Johan Swinnen, 2010. "EU Land Markets and the Common Agricultural Policy," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 53(3), pages 1-31.
    11. Ay, Jean-Sauveur & Latruffe, Laure, 2013. "The Empirical Content of the Present Value Model: A survey of the instrumental uses of farmland prices," Working papers 157112, Factor Markets, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    12. Philippe Le Goffe & Julien Salanie, 2005. "Pricing manure spreading rights: measure from the land market," Post-Print hal-02338151, HAL.
    13. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David & Gil, Jose Maria, 2008. "Farms' technical inefficiencies in the presence of government programs," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(1), pages 1-20.
    14. Baldoni, Edoardo & Ciaian, Pavel, 2023. "The capitalization of CAP subsidies into land prices in the EU," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    15. Hendricks, Nathan P. & Janzen, Joseph P. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 2012. "Subsidy Incidence and Inertia in Farmland Rental Markets: Estimates from a Dynamic Panel," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 1-18.
    16. Feichtinger, Paul & Salhofer, Klaus, 2011. "The Valuation of Agricultural Land and the Influence of Government Payments," Factor Markets Working Papers 112, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    17. Pierre Dupraz & Chalachew Temesgen Jemberie, 2012. "Farmland rental rate and marginal return to land: A french FADN perspective," Post-Print hal-01208927, HAL.
    18. L. Latruffe & T. Doucha & Ch. Le Mouël & T. Medonos & V. Voltr, 2008. "Capitalisation of government support in agricultural land prices in the Czech Republic," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 54(10), pages 451-460.
    19. Woltjer, Geert B. & Luijt, Jan L. & Jongeneel, Roelof A., 2008. "A Land Market Cycle in the Netherlands," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44376, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Henderson, Jason R. & Gloy, Brent A., 2008. "The Impact of Ethanol Plants on Land Values in the Great Plains," 2007 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 4-5, 2007, St. Louis, Missouri 48148, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:68:y:2020:i:2:p:245-250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/caefmea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.