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A Land Market Cycle in the Netherlands

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Author Info
Woltjer, G.B.
Luijt, J.L.
Jongeneel, R.

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Abstract

This paper develops a disequilibrium model of land prices in the Netherlands. It shows that the behaviour of traded quantities and prices of Dutch land have some resemblance with a disequilibrium land market model developed by Søgaard. An error correction model based on Søgaard’s model generates significant results with GDP and the real interest rate as explanatory variables, but regrettably farm income nor government demand for land generate significant results. If the model is correct, bubbles are characteristic for the Dutch land market, and this suggests that there is an opportunity for Dutch government to improve on the timing of buying land for nature policy.

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Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium with number 44376.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae08:44376

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Keywords: land market cycle; land prices; nature policy; Land Economics/Use;

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  1. Titus O. Awokuse & Joshua M. Duke, 2006. "The Causal Structure of Land Price Determinants," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 54(2), pages 227-245, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Maurice J. Roche & Kieran McQuinn, 2000. "Speculation in agricultural land," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1010700, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  3. Luciano Gutierrez & Joakim Westerlund & Kenneth Erickson, 2007. "Farmland prices, structural breaks and panel data," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press for the Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 161-179, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Charles B. Moss & Ani L. Katchova, 2005. "Farmland valuation and asset performance," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 65(2), pages 119-130, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Tegene, Abebayehu & Kuchler, Fred, 1991. "An Error Correcting Model of Farmland Prices," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 23(11), pages 1741-47, November.
  6. Alfons Weersink & Steve Clark & Calum G. Turvey & Rakhal Sarker, 1999. "The Effect of Agricultural Policy on Farmland Values," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 75(3), pages 425-439. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Engsted, Tom, 1998. "Do Farmland Prices Reflect Rationally Expected Future Rents?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 75-79, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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